[Marxism] Bolivians look to the future, see uncertainty

["Walter Lippmann" <walterlx@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

("German Antelo, president of the powerful Pro-Santa Cruz Civic
Committee, said autonomy would bring "justice and solidarity" in
Bolivia. He also used the event to attack Morales' close relation-
ship with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and Cuba's Fidel Castro.")
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/CubaNews/message/51318
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COMMENT: Except for those ultrleftoids types like James Petras, 
you don't need a weather person to know which way the wind blows.
http://www.voltairenet.org/article139969.html
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Posted on Fri, Jun. 30, 2006

Bolivians look to the future, see uncertainty
VOTE WILL DECIDE WHO WILL REWRITE THE CONSTITUTION
By Frank Bajak and Fiona Smith
Associated Press
http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/world/14937474.htm

CURAHUARA DE CARANGAS, Bolivia - Climbing a hilltop to greet the dawn of
their new year, the poncho-wearing tribal elders sacrifice two llamas and
offer coca leaves, sugar and salt to Mother Earth. Then they come down the
slope and back into the debate over their new president's attempt to remake
Bolivia.

Being Aymara Indians like Evo Morales, South America's first truly
indigenous leader, they might be expected to line up squarely behind him.
Yet they, like many Bolivians, have their doubts, fearing they are being led
into a dangerous alliance with Cuba and Venezuela.

They worry about Morales' effort to make his ``people's revolution''
permanent, beginning with elections Sunday for a national assembly to
rewrite Bolivia's constitution.

Jaime Pérez, a powerful Aymara leader, takes issue with Morales' alignment
with ``the socialist politics of Cuba'' and with Venezuelan President Hugo
Chávez, who strengthened his own hold on power six years ago by convening a
similar assembly.

Pérez calls Morales ``our son'' but then adds: ``Just because he is our son
doesn't mean we want things this way. Are we so ignorant, such dogs, that we
need to be told what to do?''

The constituent assembly's 255 delegates, who will convene Aug. 6, must
write the new magna carta within a year, approve it by a two-thirds majority
and put it to a referendum.

The new constitution could bring more transparency to this
corruption-ridden, politically volatile nation.

But big questions loom: Whether Morales' supporters will try to abolish the
ban on presidents serving consecutive terms; whether to give Bolivia's nine
states greater autonomy or keep the balance of power in the central
government's favor; and whether to strengthen the traditional justice system
of the Indian majority, long the victims of discrimination. The Morales
government also wants to distribute more farmland to landless peasants.

And with Morales turning his back on Washington, his critics say the
constitution will be crafted to dismantle Bolivian democracy.

Raúl Prada, a candidate for the assembly from Morales' Movement Towards
Socialism, or MAS, rejects such notions.

``We want to rid the nation's institutions of vestiges of colonialism and
capitalism and give society greater and more direct control over the
state,'' he said.

Rather than debate such issues, the main opposition party, Podemos, has
focused on fears that his chumminess with oil-rich, Cuba-friendly Venezuela
threatens Bolivia's independence.

``Hugo Chávez is a soldier. He came to Bolivia to tell us how to run our
constituent assembly. He showed a map in which Bolivia will form part of his
confederation. Now Chávez is sending soldiers to Bolivia,'' says a Podemos
radio ad.

Podemos calls Venezuela's growing influence in Bolivia a threat to national
sovereignty -- Venezuelan air force helicopters ferry Morales around, and
Venezuelan military planes have flown in at least a dozen times. Bolivia's
defense ministry says most of those flights delivered relief supplies;
Podemos says a number arrived suspiciously in pre-dawn hours.

Having nationalized the gas industry, Morales now wants the constitution to
enshrine other objectives, such as giving civic movements the power to vet
government spending and guaranteeing free health care for all.

How it would pay for all this is unclear -- though more than 1,000 Cuban
doctors have arrived in Bolivia since Morales' inauguration Jan. 22 to
provide free care to the rural poor.

While no polls have been conducted, most analysts think Morales will get a
majority in Sunday's vote but probably not a decisive two-thirds. That would
likely force his party to cut deals with other parties and end up
disappointing MAS's union-based coalition of landless peasants, coca growers
and middle-class intellectuals.

Podemos, the main opposition party, wants to gradually switch Bolivia to a
parliamentary system, thus weakening the power of the president in a country
that has seen 189 coups d'etat since its 1825 independence.

Popular assemblies to remake constitutions have been common in recent
decades in Latin American countries, including Colombia, Venezuela, Peru and
Brazil. But Eduardo Gamarra, a Bolivian who heads the Latin American Studies
program at Florida International University, thinks a constitutional rewrite
isn't apt to change much in his country.

``It doesn't matter if you change the constitution 70,000 times, the
behavior of the political culture is going to be the same,'' he says.
Frank Bajak reported from Curahuara de Carangas; Fiona Smith reported from
La Paz.
Subscribe to the Mercury News


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