[Marxism] Julio Huato comments on Enrique Krauze

[Louis Proyect <lnp3@xxxxxxxxx>]

Enrique Krauze's op-ed in the New York Times ("Bringing Mexico Closer
to God," June 28, 2006) about Andrés Manuel López Obrador, Mexico's
leftist presidential candidate, reveals more about Krauze's
conservative outlook than about the true prospects of a López Obrador
administration.  Lacking substantive facts, Krauze mixes a few casual
remarks with his own personal impressions to project the ghost of
"messianic populism" onto López Obrador's future presidency.

But the main threat to Mexico's fragile democracy is not a ghost.  It
is, instead, the brutal reality of the country's social inequality.
Twelve years after NAFTA was implemented -- official sources attest --
almost fifty percent of Mexicans still live in poverty.  Measures of
wealth dispersion are dismal, comparable to those in Brazil, Haiti,
and sub-Saharan Africa.  Many Mexicans are under the impression that
Felipe Calderón, the candidate of the right, "has failed to convey
real concern for Mexico's poor," as Krauze puts it, because he has no
actual concern for Mexico's poor.

There can be no political stability in Mexico and -- therefore --
lasting growth without narrowing the gaping economic divide between
the rich and poor.  López Obrador's redistributive policies promise to
be effective without disrupting private ownership and markets; not
only compatible with the growth of the economy but actually growth
inducing.  Wall Street seems to have grasped this.  Joydeep Mukherji,
Standard & Poor's specialist in Latin America, recently told CNN en
Español that foreign investors' real concern was Mexico's ability to
grow in the long run, which depended on stable social conditions, and
dismissed short-term turbulence should López Obrador win.

López Obrador has been quite consistent in his economic policy stance,
pledging to respect the autonomy of Mexico's central bank, rejecting
fiscal and monetary policy gimmicks, and ruling out increased
indebtedness.  While fulfilling his vow to tackle inequality will
require a substantial hike in tax revenues, López Obrador intends to
accomplish it by eliminating tax privileges for the rich and well
connected, limiting tax evasion, fighting corruption, and reducing the
top bureaucracy's frivolous spending and outrageous salaries.  Krauze
dismisses it as demagoguery, but it is credible.

As mayor of Mexico City, López Obrador proved to be a resourceful
penny pincher.  With a limited budget, subject to strict oversight by
a federal congress dominated by rival parties, he began to rebuild the
central areas of Mexico City devastated by the 1985 earthquake,
improved public transportation by expanding old metro lines and
building new ones, tackled traffic congestion (a large contributor to
air pollution) by building surprisingly efficient elevated bypasses,
and provided subsidies to single mothers, the elderly, and the
disabled -- all on a shoestring.  Private investment in Mexico's
capital reached rates it had not had in decades.  His mayoral
experience convinced him that corruption and waste are a gigantic
diversion of public resources.  His fiscal plan is not inconsistent
with his social agenda.

The "free markets" credo and the "pull-yourself-by-the-bootstraps"
moralising of the PAN lack popular appeal.  Backed by the financial
and political muscle of prominent businessmen with strong conservative
leanings, to the poor, this discourse smacks of hypocrisy --
doublespeak where helping the rich at public expense becomes a
"stimulus to private investment" and helping the poor turns you into a
"populist."  Aware of this, Calderón's campaign strategy defaulted to
fearmongering, saturating the airwaves with negative messages.

A López Obrador victory, Calderón claims, will be a prelude to
economic crises, foreign capital flight, authoritarian rule,
expropriations, militarization, and violence.  Intentionally or not,
Krauze's article fits in this strategy.  But, to judge by the massive
attendance and enthusiasm in López Obrador's campaign meetings and
rallies, the strategy has not worked.  Popular instincts may prove
prescient: In the long run, the real danger is inaction in the face of
Mexico's monstrous inequities.  A monarchical presidency under López
Obrador, on the other hand, is in Krauze's imagination only.

Julio Huato is an economist and researcher at the Howard Samuels
Center of the City University of New York, Graduate Center.  Born in
Mexico, he lives in Brooklyn.


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