[Marxism] Re: The Talibanization of Iraq

[Brian Shannon <brian_shannon@xxxxxxxxxxx>]

On Jun 20, 2006, at 11:01 PM, Lajany Otum wrote:

> Brian,
> I'm interested to know why you think that the picture presented in
> the link you sent may upset US plans for permanent bases in the
> country.
> L. Otum
>
> Brian Shannon <brian_shannon@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote: My title, of course.
>
> The picture presented threatens even the 4 to 14 permanent military
> bases that the United States plans for Iraq.
>
> "Who Lost Iraq?" may be the slogan for the first quarter of the 21st
> century.

My model is the almost 40,000 U.S. troops in South Korea, which
despite the deep resentment of U.S. presence there and oft-times
massive demonstrations against its government and the U.S. troops,
seems to have at least some degree of support in the ruling strata
and which additionally has an economic base that allows it a certain
degree of stability.

Compared to Iraq, it has a homogeneous population. Nor is it consumed
with the religious intensity and manipulation of the Muslim world.

Whereas in Iraq, you have three conflicting populations, to the
extent that a year ago even Kissinger said that it might be better to
let it fall apart than to force it together.

There is no independent secular force capable of holding the country
together and neutralizing the religious divisions and intensity. That
was lost with the fall of Saddam Hussein, which Bush and Co. failed
to understand.

From the description in the leaked memorandum, which assuming to be
legitimate has great force as a document from within the Bush
adminstration itself, I don't see any possibility of the stability of
my South Korea model. Let us remember that the South Korea itself has
often been at the edge of crisis, even though I paint it as an
exemplar compared to Iraq.

From this, it seems to me that the U.S. soldiers and their bases
will be completely isolated. In addition, the costs, already high,
will continue at an extraordinary level. If the direct Iraq employees
of the embassy are under such pressure and fear, what does that mean
for the rest of the population? What sliver of support will be left
for the U.S. occupation or even maintenance of bases?

brian


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