[Marxism] Open emergence of pro-US block of governments in Latin America sharpens polarization

["Fred Feldman" <ffeldman@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

We are seeing the development -- inevitable considering the threat that
Chavez and Morales pose to the local agents of US imperialism as well as
their masters in these countries -- of a counter-group of governments
that accept the political and economic leadership of the US, built
around Colombia, Peru and Mexico -- countries where the local ruling
groups have enough traditional power and cohesion to make a stand
against the forces beginning to press up from below.

The current smear campaign against Lopez Obrador, the reformist left
candidate in Mexico, will now escalate sharply.

And the pressure on Bachelet in Chile, Lula in Brazil, and even on
Kirchner to line up with this camp will rise.

Of course, what is missing in all these countries is the kind of
revolutionary-in-spirit and social character that took place in Bolivia
and Venezuela (and of course in Cuba).  But we should remember that they
are all highly subject to it.

In particular, I think Washington is very dissatisfied with Bachelet.
Her compromise with the students and ineffective but sharp condemnations
of police attacks on them all indicate that she is not the person who
they can count on to stem rather than bend to the tide.  A little too
much Allende in her "socialism.;" it appears.

When the conditions of the masses, especially in the rural and mountain
areas but also in the cities, are taken into account, Garcia's
condemnation of Chavez's "retrograde" course is not only outrageous but
criminal.

And note the meeting of the OAS -- the good old "ministry of colonies"
-- which didn't have the nerve to condemn Chavez for his support to the
working people and poor of Peru against their "elected" slave-drivers
but apparently devoted much of their corridor discussions to criticizing
him.

Meanwhile Ecuador, where there is a mass movement challenging the
government, continues to teeter this way and that.  Now, in a peculiar
twist, the government is DEMANDING to get into the FTA despite the cold
shoulder it is getting from Washington.

Fred Feldman




Business Day
Posted to the web on: 06 June 2006
Peru's new leader cocks a snook at populists
Alex Emery and Andrew J Barden

  _____



LIMA - Alan Garcia, after claiming victory as Peru's next president,
vowed to increase trade ties with the US and challenge Venezuelan
President Hugo Chavez's efforts to expand his influence in Latin
America.

Garcia said Peruvians on Sunday voted against the populist policies of
Chavez that have been replicated in Bolivia and Ecuador.

In April Chavez called Garcia a "thief", and backed the Nationalist
Party's Ollanta Humala. Garcia won 55,5% of the vote in the runoff
election to Humala's 44,5%, based on a majority of votes counted by the
electoral board.

"The vote was a defeat for Chavez's expansionist plans that he is trying
to implement in South America, his attempts to annex us to his
retrograde model," Garcia said.

"What was at stake here was our sovereignty, rejecting the pretensions
of those who have oil wealth to dominate us," he said.

The attacks against Chavez help Garcia's attempts to show Peruvians he
has changed since he was president in the 1980s and carried out his own
populist agenda that led to higher spending, soaring inflation and a
government debt default.

Garcia, who campaigned for "responsible change", on Sunday night vowed
to back a free-trade agreement with the US, limit inflation and keep the
budget deficit in check.

Annual inflation in Peru was 2,2% last month, the lowest among the 10
biggest Latin American economies. Peru's $68bn economy had average
annual growth of 5% from 2001 to last year.

"We need to ensure the spectre of inflation that terrorised many of us
doesn't return to threaten our country," Garcia told about 5000
supporters. "We need to ensure the country grows, at the same time as it
is decentralised and creates jobs."

His speech was an attempt "to reassure markets that he will be very
serious about economic polices and won't make the same mistakes",
Gianfranco Bertozzi, a Latin America economist with Lehman Brothers,
said in New York.

Peru's benchmark stock index on Friday had its biggest gain since
January on expectations Garcia would win the presidential election.

The index has climbed more than eightfold since outgoing president
Alejandro Toledo took office in July 2001.

The finance ministry estimates the economy, which is led by the mining
and fishmeal industries, will expand as much as 6% this year, following
growth of 6,7% last year.

Toledo's Possible Peru party fielded two candidates who dropped out
early in the race when polls showed them with about 1% of the vote.

Presidents in Peru serve five years, and may not be re-elected for a
consecutive term. Garcia - who at 1,93m-tall towers over most Peruvians,
who stand 1,57m on average - gained ground after the first-round vote in
April by winning support from voters who had backed third-place
candidate Lourdes Flores and wanted to ensure Humala did not win.

"I never dreamt I would have to vote for Garcia," Mercedes Liria, a
housewife, said in an interview after voting in Lima.

"But I had no option - with Humala as president, we'll be governed by
Chavez."

Garcia endorsed a free-trade accord with the US, saying Peru needed to
be part of the global economy. His campaign pledges also included
providing clean water, particularly in the south, and putting an end to
illiteracy and hunger. Thousands of Garcia supporters gathered outside
the Apra party's headquarters on Sunday night in Lima to celebrate.

"Listen, Chavez, Alan has won," they chanted.

"With Alan Garcia, there will be social justice and better times for our
people," said Angela Perez, who attended the rally outside Garcia's
campaign headquarters in Lima.

"We were all scared of Humala."

Humala, who became a public figure in 2000 when he took over one of
Southern Copper's mines in a failed uprising against the government,
proposed in his campaign to raise corporate taxes, rewrite the
constitution and make the government a partner in all mining and energy
contracts.

His party, the Union for Peru, won more congressional seats than any
other party in April polls, followed by Garcia's party, the Popular
American Revolutionary Alliance.

The make-up of congress means Garcia would have to contend with Humala -
as well as Chavez, said Fernando Rospigliosi, a political analyst at the
Institute of Peruvian Studies in Lima.

Venezuela is the world's fifth-largest exporter of crude.

"You know this isn't the end of it, and I expect we'll be hearing more
from Humala and Chavez, especially with all of his money," Rospigliosi
said. "The most important problem will be in the streets and not in
congress."

Both Bolivia and Ecuador have followed Chavez's model of increasing
state control over energy assets.

The presidential bid was Garcia's second since stepping down from power
in 1990 amid quickening inflation that climbed as high as 8000% and an
escalating civil war waged by the country's Shining Path guerrillas. He
lost the presidency to Toledo in a runoff vote in 2001, nine years after
fleeing the country for France, claiming persecution by then-president
Alberto Fujimori.

On Sunday night Garcia pledged to boost international trade as part of
his "national plan" to generate more jobs and increase wages.

The US is Peru's largest trading partner. "The global economy will
continue to favour the development of our country, and there will be
grave short-term consequences for us if we cut those ties," Garcia said.
Bloomberg




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