[Marxism] FW: Peru on the eve of elections

["Joaquin Bustelo" <jbustelo@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

-----Original Message-----
From: Joaquin Bustelo [mailto:jbustelo@xxxxxxxxxxxxx] 
Sent: Saturday, June 03, 2006 7:48 PM
Cc: 'solid3@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
Subject: Peru on the eve of elections

Peru will hold the second round of its presidential elections tomorrow.

The contenders are Alan García, who was in charge of a notoriously corrupt
and ineffective government in the 1980's, and an ex-Lt.. colonel, Ollanta
Humala, who is running on a nationalist platform that brings together many
demands of the social movements.

Among the main issues in the campaign have been the Free Trade Agreement
Peru "negotiated" with (took dictation from) Washington that's not yet been
ratified. This treaty will give free reign to U.S. agribusiness to
carpet-bomb Peru's internal market with ultrasubsidized U.S. agricultural
exports at the same time that it imposes on the country even stricter and
more onerous imperialist "intellectual property" safeguards than the U.S.
has.

If Perú refuses to sign, it will lose trade preferences the U.S. granted
Andean Pact nations.

Ollanta's position is just say no. Alan García says it can be renegotiated,
something Washington rejects out of hand but has kept quiet about lately in
deference to its favorite candidate. As for the treaty itself, and the
entire record of the outgoing administration, one can get an idea of its
popularity from the fact that the sitting President's party was wiped out at
the polls, failing to get the 4% nationwide necessary for parliamentary
representation and ballot status.

Another main issue has been the supposed interference of Hugo Chavez in the
Peruvian elections. This has now become the favorite line of attack of
Washington stooges in Latin American elections, having been deployed in
Bolivia, Peru, Mexico, and Nicaragua. It is clearly a message designed by
some D.C. think tank and financed by U.S. imperialist interests. 

Alan García has accused Ollanta Humala of being an agent of the Cuban and
Venezuelan intelligence services, of having had his campaign financed by
petrodollars and so on. 

Ollanta Humala has warned that Peru will not brook interference even from
friends like Venezuela, Bolivia or ... he adds quite pointedly, the United
States. 

*  *  *

As soon as Ollanta won the first round of the presidential elections with
30% of the vote, entire forests have been sacrificed to printing articles
about how he can't win because that 30% reflected the upper limit of his
support, and backers of all the other candidates would go with Alan García. 

Among these are various and sundry reports on "public opinion polls."

While the polls could be published in Peru (publishing polls is illegal in
the week before the elections), these showed Alan García with up to 20-point
leads over Ollanta. Now in the last week, polls released to the
international press "only" (as if such a thing were possible in this day and
age) show a much closer race, with a claimed Alan García advantage of as
little as 6%, and all sorts of caveats from the pollsters saying that there
is a "hidden" Ollanta vote of 3-4% that the polls can't capture (they don't
explain why); and that there is 20% of the electorate claiming that they'll
be casting a blank ballot or are undecided that might plump for Ollanta.

Assuming the polls are honest, they could be interpreted as representing a
big surge towards Ollanta Humala in the closing week of the campaign. Just
as likely though they reflect positioning of candidates and messages by the
bourgeoisie on the eve of the elections, with the message being that all the
better off and rich people better go and vote tomorrow as the race is too
close for comfort. 

What few indications there are clearly show a very sharp class and national
polarization, with the poorer worker-peasant indigenous masses backing
Ollanta, and the mestizos and Lima middle and upper class backing Alan
García.

Joaquín


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