[Marxism] As in Iraq, Iran gains after US pushes out Syrians in Lebanon

["Fred Feldman" <ffeldman@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Part of what drives the administration towards confrontation with Iran.
Along with the growth of Iranian influence in Iraq (including in the
governmeant, which is NOT under full US control due to the weakness of
the occupation and ties with Iran), Iran's support to Hamas against the
US boycott, and the fact that developing nuclear power will make Iran
capable of producing nuclear weapons. A nuclear-capable Iran would
weaken weaken both Washington's and Tel Aviv's dominant positions in the
regional balance of power.
 
 
 
March 13, 2006

As Syria's Influence in Lebanon Wanes, Iran Moves In 

By
<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/s/michael_sl
ackman/index.html?inline=nyt-per> MICHAEL SLACKMAN

BEIRUT,
<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritorie
s/lebanon/index.html?inline=nyt-geo> Lebanon, March 6 ? Nearly a year
ago, not long after the assassination of Rafik Hariri, who was twice
prime minister of Lebanon, Syrian troops withdrew from Lebanon,
unleashing a wave of patriotism here that prompted many to say that the
Lebanese might finally be able to take control of their destiny.

But the intensity of the moment and the rush of emotions eclipsed at
least one important and largely unanswerable question: With Syria gone,
or at least its troops gone, who would fill the power vacuum?

At the time,
<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritorie
s/iran/index.html?inline=nyt-geo> Iran did not appear to be the answer.
But that is what is happening, according to government officials,
political leaders and political analysts here.

Iran, long a powerful player in Lebanon, has been able to increase its
influence, partly through its ties to the Lebanese Shiite group
Hezbollah. That has given Tehran a stronger hand to play in its
confrontation with the United States and Europe over its nuclear
program. 

Should the nuclear showdown go badly for Iran, the government could rely
on its surrogates in Lebanon as well as its influence in Iraq, or use
oil for a weapon. In Lebanon, the Iranians could contribute to the kind
of retribution they have promised as a payback, from a strike across the
border into Israel, to a more forceful flexing that could paralyze the
Lebanese government, political analysts and government officials said.

While Iran helped create, finance and train Hezbollah, it was Syria that
settled scores and managed relations between Shiite factions and
Palestinians throughout Lebanon. Syria was a filter between Tehran and
Hezbollah, and now that Syria has been uprooted, Iran and Hezbollah can
work much more closely. 

Members of Hezbollah have become members of the government for the first
time, magnifying the importance of the ties between Iran and the
Lebanese Shiite movement.

That is the downside for the United States, and for Lebanon as well,
officials here said. Unity remains elusive as Lebanon continues to be a
playing field for foreign interests.

"There is without any doubt a growing Iranian influence not only in
Lebanon but in the whole region," said Nassib Lahoud, a Maronite
Christian who is a former ambassador to the United States and a
legislator. "We are trying to build normal relations with everyone, and
we refuse to turn Lebanon into a battlefield for regional and
international powers."

Political leaders met here recently for what was billed as the start of
a national dialogue, a chance to try to resolve long-simmering disputes.
There was to be discussion about disarming militias like Hezbollah and
figuring out what to do about President Émile Lahoud, a staunch ally of
Syria, who has clung to his office even as his ability to govern has
withered under pressure to resign.

But even before the meetings began, government officials conceded that
Lebanon's ability to resolve some of its most vexing domestic conflicts
would depend on decisions made in Tehran and Washington.

Charles Rizk, Lebanon's minister of justice, said that as Iran's and
Hezbollah's influence grew in Lebanon, the country's hopes for unity
hinged on whether Iran and the United States would at least agree to
talk to each other. It is an idea, officials here acknowledge, that
appears as remote as a Syria-Israel peace deal. But as a nation
unusually susceptible to outside influences, officials said, that is
Lebanon's reality.

"I hope that by America inaugurating a process of détente with Iran,
this will reverberate into more consensus in Lebanon," Mr. Rizk said.
"This is the only chance for us to solve our problems."

For years, Iran had been a kind of second lieutenant to Syria,
important, influential and spiritually linked to the Hezbollah militia
in a way that the Alawite leadership of Syria never could have been.

But with Syrian troops dug in, and Syrian intelligence agents running
the show, Tehran's role was often more behind the scenes. In the 1980's,
during the Lebanese civil war, Syria established its dominant position
when it brokered a deal between the Shiite militias, Amal and Hezbollah,
and settled the feuds in the Palestinian camps. After that, Iran found
itself one step removed from the surrogates it helped create. 

Then, suddenly, Syria found itself in retreat.

Iran saw an opportunity and began to press ahead with its established
relationships in Lebanon, and with trying to build new ones. Lebanese
officials and academics and religious leaders were increasingly feeling
the generosity of the Iranian state, officials said, with invitations to
conferences in Iran and offers of aid.

Lebanese officials say that Iran has been careful not to appear
heavy-handed, so as not to alienate Sunni, Druse and Christian factions.
After years under the fist of Damascus, many people here said that
Iranian power was preferable because of geography ? Tehran is far away ?
and because the Iranians appeared to be more intent on winning
allegiances, not forcing them.

"Iran is omnipresent in Lebanon, not only with Hezbollah," said Ridwan
al-Sayyid, an adviser to the prime minister and a professor of Islamic
studies at Lebanese University. "They are strong, not like Syria, but
they shape their presence in different ways. They are helping many, many
organizations ? Sunnis, Shias and Christians. They are benevolent."

This is not the first time that the United States has seen Iran benefit,
however unintentionally, from events that were initially regarded as
strengthening the Bush administration's hand. With each American
military strike in the region, first against the
<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/t/tal
iban/index.html?inline=nyt-org> Taliban in Afghanistan and then against
<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/h/saddam_hus
sein/index.html?inline=nyt-per> Saddam Hussein in Iraq, Iran has found
its influence in the region grow as its enemies have been defeated by
American military might, political analysts said.

"Iran now has many more cards in confronting the United States than the
United States has in confronting Iran," said Hassan Nafaa, a professor
of political science at Cairo University. 

Now it appears that Syria's withdrawal from Lebanon increases the
Iranian mullah's influence. A recent political alliance between
Hezbollah and Gen. Michel Aoun, leader of the largest Christian bloc in
Parliament, was viewed by one political analyst with close ties to the
government as a "tactical victory" for Iran.

"It's because Syria has been deflated very much, Iran is rising as a
force," Mr. Rizk said. 

Ahmed Fatfat, the acting interior minister, said, "I believe that Iran's
role in Lebanon has become stronger, and if you look at its relationship
with Hezbollah it is stronger." 

What this means, officials said, is that as long as the United States
and Iran are at odds Lebanon will remain, at best, in limbo. Lebanon
will be unable to resolve its own domestic problems while Iran continues
to try to build up its strategic position. 

"If there is an Iranian-American clash, it will be played out here," Mr.
Fatfat said.

Nada Bakri contributed reporting for this article.


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