[Marxism] Ortega's Comeback Schemes Roil Nicaragua (WSJ)

["Walter Lippmann" <walterlx@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

The Nicaraguan Revolution's triumph on July 19, 1979 was an event 
celebrated enthusiastically in Cuba. Worn down by the contra-war in 
which rightist Cuban exile terrorists like Luis Posada Carriles had 
central roles, the Nicaraguan people voted the FSLN out of office in 
1990 and life has gotten worse and worse for the people of Nicaragua.
Yet the Sandinista Revolution was a powerful example confirming that
Cuba wasn't the only revolution, that Cuba wasn't alone, and so on.

Washington will never forgive the Sandinistas for overthrowing their
Somocista client regime. What remains of the Sandinista Revolution, 
tattered and tainted by allegations of financial scandal and sexual 
abuse by Daniel Ortega, still hasn't been beaten into sufficient
submission to satisfy Washington. Bush's government wants Nicaragua 
reduced to absolute, complete, total prostration, perhaps on the
level of El Salvador, in anticipation of a feared FSLN re-election.

Forces on the Nicaraguan left are by no means unanimous in backing
Ortega's candidacy, though it's very difficult from the comfort of 
my US listening post to have a certain reading of mass sentiment on 
the ground in Nicaragua. Herty Lewites, the mayor of Managua who
was expelled from the FSLN earlier this year for challenging Daniel
Ortega in the FSLN's primary is running a vigorous campaign of his
own. He's secured the backing of several of the former leaders of
the FSLN, like Victor Hugo Tinoco, and, perhaps more importantly,
is being supported by Ernesto Cardenal, the Minister of Culture
during the years the FSLN held office. Cardenal is a combative
and consistent supporter of the Cuban Revolution whose written
work appears in the Cuban media regularly. 

Readers will notice the suggestion by O'Grady that she's looking
at Lewites' campaign favorably. Of course Washington would back
anyone to defeat Ortega and the FSLN. I haven't seen indications
in greater detail of what Lewites stands for, like a formal 
election platform, and I have no idea what kind of a political
organization or apparatus exists behind his campaign.

To my knowledge, the best source of information on Nicaragua that
is also FROM Nicaragua is the journal ENVIO, which is now online.
Envio magazine has been published for over 2 decades by the historical
institute at the Central American University in Managua and translated for
most of those years to English by Judy Butler, former editor of NACLA
magazine. 

The editor is Maria Lopez Vigil, a Cuban who has lived for 30 or 
40 years in Nicaragua, who has written several thought provoking 
pieces on Cuba. Vigil wrote a book which is both supportive and 
quite critical called Cuba, Neither Heaven Nor Hell. 

Read some short publicity blurbs about her Cuba book:
http://makeashorterlink.com/?L592226AB

READ MORE IN ENVIO from Nicaragua
http://www.envio.org.ni/index.en 
=================================================================

THE AMERICAS
        
Ortega's Comeback Schemes
Roil Nicaragua

By MARY ANASTASIA O'GRADY
August 5, 2005


MANAGUA -- Daily life took a holiday here Monday as the city feted
its patron, Santo Domingo. Thousands lined the parade route, under a
sweltering tropical sun, to view a diminutive image of the revered
saint atop a huge, ornate flower arrangement shouldered through the
streets by some 20 men.

Only death and politics refused a day off. Tragically, on the same
day, President Enrique Bolaños and his family were receiving
condolences at the wake of the president's son Jorge, who died
suddenly last week of a brain aneurysm. Elsewhere the rest of the
country's politicians were working overtime, maneuvering for a new
presidential election scheduled for November 2006.

Nicaragua is in the midst of a constitutional crisis. Its frail
democracy was born only 15 years ago of an election outcome that
shocked the Cuban-sponsored Sandinista dictatorship of Daniel Ortega
and brought Violeta Chamorro to power. But real democracy, with truly
independent institutions, competitive markets and a secure rule of
law, is yet to emerge. Now Ortega, who has made it no secret that he
envies the one-man rule of Venezuela's Hugo Chávez, wants to strangle
constitutional government in its crib.

If poverty reduction and commitment to democracy are more than
slogans voiced at rich-nation summits, the international community
ought to care. Ortega's rule after the Sandinista takeover in 1979
became a Cold War issue as the Soviet-backed Sandinistas sought to
destabilize the rest of Central America. Those years destroyed this
country's economy, leaving it far behind its neighbors. Investors are
just now beginning to eye the place for its low labor costs, untapped
human capital and unexplored business opportunities. Growth is
picking up. Crime is low relative to the region and Nicaraguan
democracy is showing signs of maturing past the oversimplified
politics of Sandinismo versus contra-Sandinismo.

If Ortega is allowed to bully his way back to the executive office
where he will seek to impose his caudillo-style "capitalism," much
will be lost. As if to make the point, this week the Sandinistas in
congress reiterated their opposition to the Central American Free
Trade Agreement. Equally alarming is Ortega's hateful class warfare
and his virulent anti-Americanism. If Nicaragua falls under his
control, the Yankee-hating Latin axis that already joins Cuba and
Venezuela will have extended its reach.

Much will depend on the effectiveness of an emerging and widening
popular resistance movement that links Nicaraguans across the
political spectrum and has pledged to take to the streets a la
Ukraine's Orange Revolution to stop Ortega's effort to regain power.

For most of the last 15 years the Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC)
has held the presidency but never fully dislodged the Sandinistas
from their power base. Mrs. Chamorro was forced into a tacit
understanding that granted the Sandinistas immunity from prosecution,
control of the army and ownership of the many properties they had
confiscated at gunpoint when they realized they would lose the 1990
election.

During the presidency of Arnoldo Alemán (1997-2002) the PLC became
more corrupt and yielded even more ground to Ortega. The two dons
crafted a pact in 2000 that gave Alemán a congressional seat with
immunity from prosecution in exchange for changes to the electoral
law that favored Ortega's effort to resume power. One of those
changes was to lower the percentage of the presidential vote needed
to avoid a runoff to 35% from 45%.

Pres. Bolaños succeeded Alemán but broke with the PLC machine and
managed to strip Alemán of his congressional immunity. The former
president was convicted of embezzlement in 2003 and is now serving a
20-year sentence under house arrest. But with the Supreme Court now
evenly divided between Sandinistas and the PLC, Ortega holds the keys
to Alemán's release, yet another source of political leverage.

In January, congressional Sandinistas teamed up with the PLC to pass
constitutional changes to strip Mr. Bolaños of his executive powers.
The president chose to ignore the Congress, so, in effect the country
is now operating under two constitutions. Last week a Nicaraguan
judge with links to the PLC released Alemán from house arrest,
granting him limited parole. Several days later an appellate court
with Sandinista connections reversed that decision. The case will now
go to the Supreme Court. Many Nicaraguans believe that Ortega's price
for Alemán's re-release is PLC cooperation in assuring an Ortega
presidential victory.

With such powerful leverage, Ortega would seem to have what he needs
to freeze out any political competition "legally." What remains
unclear is whether this despised political elite can bear the
grass-roots pressure against them. Polls indicate that Alemán and
Ortega are Nicaragua's two most unpopular political figures. On June
16, an estimated 50,000 Managuans turned out to protest their "pact,"
or what one nongovernmental activist describes as the "two-headed
dictatorship."

In a fair election, Ortega's worst nightmare is a popular challenger
and former Sandinista mayor of Managua, Herty Lewites, who told me
this week that Ortega wants nothing less than "total control" of
power in Nicaragua. At a minimum, the ex-mayor could spoil Ortega's
chances to capture the 35% he needs for a first-ballot success by
allying left-of-center defectors from Ortega's extremist wing of the
Sandinista movement. Ortega's minions are now seeking an indictment
against Mr. Lewites for corruption.

A similar strategy is being used against one of the country's popular
right-of-center candidates, Eduardo Montealgre, who threatens to
siphon off much of the PLC's natural base, now fed up with Alemán
corruption. Nicaraguans fear that the Sandinista-PLC coalition will
try to disqualify such candidates on technical grounds or employ
fraud on election day.

Some democrats here are relying heavily on the Organization of
American States to force the country's institutions to hold a free
and fair election. But judging by the OAS's failure in the Venezuelan
recall referendum and in municipal elections here last year, that may
be folly. A better strategy would be to rely on Nicaraguans
themselves to finally secure a democracy that has been too long in
the making.



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