Re: [Marxism] Peak Oil

["rrubinelli" <rrubinelli@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Guess we gotta parse this one:


----- Original Message -----
From: "Intense Red" <intnsred@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: "Activists and scholars in Marxist tradition"
<marxism@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, July 10, 2005 1:56 PM
Subject: Re: [Marxism] Peak Oil


IR:    There are several issues above.  First is just the issue of Peak
Oil -- is
> it real or not?  I think the jury's in on that, many gov'ts and the
oil
> industry all say we're going to hit the peak.  It's only a matter of
whether
> you believe the US gov'ts rosy estimate of the peak being a couple of
decades
> away or many industry analysts' estimates of the peak occurring now or
in a
> few short years.
__________

RR: US rosy estimate is based on proven reserves.  Proven is an economic
category, defined by the SEC, not a geological category.  Probable
reserves are those that can reasonably expected to become proven.

The depletionist theorists have yet to come to grips with the fact that
most oil production rates do NOT follow the bell curve:  only 8 of 51
non-OECD countries exhibit production/reserve curves similar to
Hubbert's bell curve. OECD countries are of course the most developed
and there production peaks coincide with overall rates of return on
investment, growth of fixed capital, costs of production, etc.-- in
short the classical categories of Marxist analysis and critique NOT
pre-existing geological determinants.

Further, Venezeula has more than doubled the size of its conventional
reserves since 1973, mainly in higher grade, lighter, reserves, despite
steady declines in production.  On the other side of the same coin,
Mexico has managed to maintain and increase production despite
precipitous declines in proven reserves.  The offset curves developed by
the Hubbertists, and particularly Laherrere, say Mexico's production
should be near a zero right now, with the price of production of what
little oil is left near the $200 per barrel of oil equivalent.  No such
thing has occurred.
_____________________

IR:    The oil wars have been going on for a while and will no doubt
continue; the
> US neo-cons are blunt about their strategy.
___________

RR:  What oil wars?  Iraq is not a war for oil, not by any stretch.  If
access to oil, or cheap oil, or reserves of oil were the  issue, then
the US would have withdrawn the economic sanctions, allowing investment
and supplies to flow uninhibited to the markets.  When, in 1998, Iraqi
production touched the 3 million barrel a day mark, the US oil industry
was the first and among the loudest to bellyache about flooding the
markets and damaging profits.
________________________


IR:    The rightist dictatorship model is fairly unlikely, IMHO.  I
assume here
> you're talking about the US.  I just don't see the need for it.  The
fascists
> in power now have done a very, very effective job of muzzling dissent
and
> pushing through whatever they want.  Sure, their social security
> privatization dreams are dead in the water, but they've got the
Patriot Act
> in their pocket and have gone a long, long way towards conditioning
the
> public to accept militarism and to ignore their policies.  If they're
getting
> 80% of what they want, why would they have to resort to a dictatorship
when
> the pseudo-democracy we have offers them so many other benefits?
__________________

RR:  Fascists in power in the US?  Not hardly.  This is not fascism.
Corporatists in power?  Absolutely.  Right wing hard car of the
bourgeoisie, propping themselves up by mobilizing and appealing to even
more right wing, small propertied, racist, reactionary social
formations? Correct again.  But not yet fascist.  You and I wouldn't be
posting on a list if this were fascism.

Peak oil theory serves a purpose, and that purpose  serves the interests
of  the oil industry, licking its paws in the warmth of its petroleum
fired stove-- examination of the financial performance of the industry
since 1999 tells you all you need to know about shortages, peaks, and
who's zooming whom.


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