Re: [Marxism] Peak Oil

[Intense Red <intnsred@xxxxxxxxxxxx>]

 > I think this will almost certainly lead to a capitalist economic collapse
 > on the order of the 1930's with the only capitalist "solution" being more
 > oil wars and probably a rightist dictatorship of some kind.  What do other
 > people think about this? To me it's ominous, because there is little in the
 > way of working class revolutionary leadership in the world.

   There are several issues above.  First is just the issue of Peak Oil -- is
it real or not?  I think the jury's in on that, many gov'ts and the oil
industry all say we're going to hit the peak.  It's only a matter of whether
you believe the US gov'ts rosy estimate of the peak being a couple of decades
away or many industry analysts' estimates of the peak occurring now or in a
few short years.

   There have been many articles about the impending collapse of the world
capitalist economy in this list.  Let's face it, capitalism is built on a
house of cards and those cards are very shaky.  A collapse could come from
issues surrounding Peak Oil or be caused by many other factors.

   The oil wars have been going on for a while and will no doubt continue; the
US neo-cons are blunt about their strategy.  The only question is whether
significant opposition will arise (more significant than localized resistance
or rebellions).  The recent call by several central Asian nations for the US
to pull out of their countries is very significant.  This hints that some
serious opposition may arise.

   The rightist dictatorship model is fairly unlikely, IMHO.  I assume here
you're talking about the US.  I just don't see the need for it.  The fascists
in power now have done a very, very effective job of muzzling dissent and
pushing through whatever they want.  Sure, their social security
privatization dreams are dead in the water, but they've got the Patriot Act
in their pocket and have gone a long, long way towards conditioning the
public to accept militarism and to ignore their policies.  If they're getting
80% of what they want, why would they have to resort to a dictatorship when
the pseudo-democracy we have offers them so many other benefits?

   To me, the lack of a working class movement is the key.  The US working
classes have been divided and there are only relatively minor squeaks and
squawks in response to their declining standard of living and economic
security.

   I think there is a real potential for the ruling class to turn the US
working classes against those "third world foreign workers" if the ruling
class ever felt the need to.  Such a move would be drastic for capital and
would come with all sorts of upsides and downsides, but the potential for
such a move is there in case that above-mentioned crisis of capitalism
demands it.

   I don't mean to sound overly pessimistic, but right now the capitalists are
having their way and are largely doing what they want.  Sure, there are a
number of factors that could impede their plans, but we need several
different factors to some together to develop some significant opposition.
The focus must be kept on the crimes of the ruling classes for that
opposition to develop.

 In solidarity.

--
Fast fact: More money is spent by the U.S. gov't on nuclear weaponry in one
year than was spent on housing from 1980-1992.

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