Re: [Marxism] Does anybody feel a draft? I don't

["Carlos A. Rivera" <cerejota@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

----- Original Message -----
From: "Intense Red" <intnsred@xxxxxxxxxxxx>



>   I thought your post had many insightful components.  At this point, I
> agree
> with you.

So do I.

>   Of course, in the case of another 9/11-type attack, all bets are off.

I don't think so. In any case 9/11 redux will lead to upping the ante in
terms of domestic security, in particular the expansion of the USA PATRIOT
Act, and of the police powers of the Dept of Homeland Security. Not of the
armed forces.

I do think that if a political desicion is made to launch a full-scale
invasion of Syria, then we will see a draft.

Joaquin is very correct in saying that the Administration is comfortable
with how the war is going:

1) By and large the loses are "sustainable".

2) They have defacto control of Iraqi resources, and this exploitation is
slowly returning to pre-war levels.

3) It is not an electorally important issue.

4) The problems in  recruitment and most importantly *retention* are not yet
a *crisis* in any meaningful way.

I don't feel a draft, and have debated extensively offline and online on
this point, in particular in opposition to the "oppose the draft" slogan as
a primary slogan, which I feel is an easy cop-out for "slow pullout"
Demohacks. In any case, the imposition of the draft will indeed create a
tidal wave we would be quite prepared to ride to victory. At least today the
myth of a "volunteer" armed forces works for the apathetic majority in their
passivity in actively opposing the war. Once you have the draft, apathy is
suicidal.

Again, I think all bets are off if the desicion is made to invade Syria.

Let me re-state and further explain this point.

I think some of the neo-cons currently are on a full fetish mode regarding
the so-called "Lybian Thriumph". They think that the "deterrent" element of
the Iraq war, which was one of their main pre-911 arguments actually works.
Since the USA has re-asserted itself as a power capable of "global
conventional force projection" and of full-scale unilateral military action,
their logic follows, nowadays simply the threat of invasion, and maybe an
air raid here and a special forces assassination there, sufice.

This model is the same model used by the Zionist Entity after the inavsion
of Lebanon and the attack on Iraq's French-built reactor. After these
events, the ZE has not felt the need to inavade any other country, yet it
feels the double threat of invasion capability and nuclear deterrent has by
and large keept its neighbors in check.

Yet other neo-cons are on full on "Invade Syria" mode. They are having
battles all over the place regarding this, in particular with the armed
forces which in general feel they cannot excercise a two front war without
sacrificing current defensive commitments. These neo-cons claim that the
armed forces are being conservative, and that the capability is there if
only they "stopped thinking in cold war terms", for example, reducing troop
commitments in Europe and the Pacific.

In any case, there is no desicion to invade Syria as of yet. And again, if a
draft is installed it most likely will be because the "invade syria"  wing
of Bush's advisor's wins. Otherwise, this so-called crisis in recruitment
doesn't yet warrant a draft, nor will it in the foreable future.

The crisis of retention, on the other hand, does create the contiditions for
an "inside draft", such as the "stop loss" program, officer recall
(re-activating retired officers - most officers who retire early agree to be
subject to recall) and expansion of minimal service times to access
benefits. This form of draft (which I call a draft because it is a forcible
induction into military service) is much easier to sell to the chickenhawk
public and less politically damaging, yet will hit morale hard.

Another form of "hidden draft" that I would expect to see would be the offer
of short enlistment requirements that then get expanded unilaterally, in
other words, the implementation and legalization of the anti-ethical
recruitment methods that many recruiters have been using.


sks


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