[Marxism] Divided Bolivia likely close to a showdown

[Fred Fuentes <fred.fuentes@xxxxxxxxx>]

NEWS ANALYSIS
Divided Bolivia likely close to a showdown
Polarization viewed as very dangerous for poor nation

Reed Lindsay, Chronicle Foreign Service

Saturday, March 19, 2005
 
La Paz, Bolivia -- In less than two weeks, President Carlos Mesa
gambled with his mandate twice and won both times -- or so it seemed.

But the real showdown in South America's poorest nation -- riven by
ethnic, class and ideological differences -- has only begun, many
analysts say.

"In the coming weeks or months there will be a confrontation," said
Alvaro Garcia, a political analyst in La Paz. "The political center
has been emptied, and the country is sharply divided between left and
right. For the moment, everything seems to be on hold, but in the
future this polarization could be very dangerous."

Mesa is supported by the nation's political elite, who are allied with
foreign investors and backed by Bolivia's relatively small but
influential middle class. The opposition is led by presidential
hopeful Evo Morales, who heads the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) --
Bolivia's major opposition party. He is an outspoken critic of U.S.
drug policy in Bolivia and popular with the poor Aymara and Quechua
indigenous majority.

On March 8, Bolivia's parliament voted unanimously to reject Mesa's
letter of resignation, and on Thursday legislators tossed out a bill
he had presented calling for early elections. Later that night, Mesa
dispelled rumors that he would resign.

"I'm not going to run away from my responsibility," said Mesa in a
nationally televised address. "It would not make any sense for me to
hand over the presidency to somebody who doesn't have the legitimacy
of the vote."

The shrewd political ploys helped the former vice president narrowly
avert the nation's worst crisis since he assumed office in October
2003, after huge street protests sparked by an unpopular natural gas
export deal forced then-President Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada to flee to
Miami. Last week, coca farmers lifted crippling road blockades on the
nation's most important highway, and the lower house of parliament
pushed through a controversial bill to regulate the natural gas and
oil industry on which Mesa has staked his presidency.

At risk are tens of billions of dollars in natural gas deposits, and
the future of democracy in a nation where road blockades have taken
precedence over parliamentary politics.

At the heart of the conflict is the question of how Bolivia will
exploit its natural gas reserves, the second largest in South America,
which are seen by both sides as the key to reducing poverty and
developing this landlocked nation of some 9 million inhabitants where
some 70 percent live below the poverty line.

Mesa had demanded that parliament pass a law more amenable to foreign
petroleum companies, maintaining 18 percent royalty payments on
exports and adding a 32 percent production tax. Peasant and union
leaders had called for a nondeductible 50 percent royalty and greater
control over the industry by the state and indigenous communities.

In the end, the lower house of parliament passed a compromise bill
Wednesday, opting for Mesa's formula, but including provisions that
prevent oil companies from using the 32 percent tax to make deductions
on other taxes. The bill now goes to the Senate for approval.

Similar struggles are being waged across Latin America, where greater
poverty and the widening gap between rich and poor have spawned
growing discontent with free-market policies that favor foreign
investment. But nowhere has the groundswell against globalization been
as striking as in Bolivia, where grassroots indigenous movements have
waged street battles against multinational companies and free market
policies -- and won.

In January, indigenous protesters paralyzed La Paz's neighboring city
of El Alto until Mesa agreed to rescind a contract with Aguas de
Illimani, a privatized water utility company owned by the French giant
Suez, which residents had blamed for rising water prices.

In the so-called "Water War" protests of 2000, protesters forced out
the San Francisco-based Bechtel Corp. after its water subsidiary
raised rates in the city of Cochabamba. The anti-globalization
protests in Bolivia and other Andean nations has raised alarm in
Washington.

"In Bolivia, Ecuador, and Peru, distrust and a loss of faith in failed
institutions fuel the emergence of anti-U.S., anti-globalization, and
anti- free trade demagogues," Gen. Bantz J. Craddock, commander of the
U.S. Southern Command, recently told the House of Representatives
Armed Services Committee.

Meanwhile, Mesa's mandate seems no less precarious as the fight over
the nation's most prized natural resource moves to the parliament.

Mesa also faces political trouble in eastern Bolivia, where wealthy
businessmen, who spearheaded protests in February, are demanding
greater autonomy and calling on Mesa to use the armed forces to
repress the protesters, a tactic he has so far refused to employ.

"The problem is we have a president with his pants down," said Guido
Añez, a rancher from the eastern city of Santa Cruz. "We need a
president who is going to have a stronger economic agenda, who is
going to use his authority against radical social groups."

But the threat of crackdowns has not deterred Bolivia's indigenous poor.

"Here in Bolivia, everything is achieved with blockades," said
Primitivo Colque, a 35-year-old farmer from Cochabamba. "We have to
scream to get what we want. If not, the government will do as it
pleases."

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