[Marxism] Thoughts on The New World Disorder - MiddleEast.

[<g.maclennan@xxxxxxxxxx>]

Middle East âupdate

Todayâs Guardian carried an article by Ian Black examining 
the case for the surge towards democracy in the Middle East.  
I havenât paid much heed to this claim though Australiaâs 
Prime Minister has been squawking on about it.  To be frank I 
have been dismissing such talk with contempt as self-evident 
propaganda and rubbish at that.  However I am beginning to 
realise that the push towards  âdemocracyâ does call for 
closer scrutiny.  

Have the American neo-conservatives taken a step closer 
towards the reconstruction of the Middle East along the kind 
of lines they have sought?  Briefly what they want is for 
Israel to be surrounded by a number of Arab nations that hold 
regular elections from which emerges a series of governments 
that uncompromisingly toe the American line in economic and 
political matters. This includes privatisation of the oil, 
recognition of Israel and the permanent garrisoning of 
American troops. Since the end of the Cold War the locus of 
action has switched from Eastern Europe to South West Asia.  
That is where the oil is and Americaâs future rival for super 
power status -â China.

What have the Americans achieved?  Well they have stabilised 
Iraq to t he extent that they have brought the Shia and the 
Kurds together to form a govt.  The hope remains that this 
new partnership will now crush the Sunni resistance.  They 
have got rid of Arafat and brought to power seemingly a 
pliant Palestinian in Abu Mazem.  They have also destroyed 
the status quo in Lebanon.  Until the Hizb Allah mobilised in 
their hundreds of thousands it looked as if we were about to 
see a velvet revolution in Lebanon.

What the Americans are trying to do in the Lebanon is to play 
a Christian, Druze and Sunni card against the Shiites and 
Syria.  In Iraq they are playing a Shiite and Kurd card 
against the Sunnis. So the question is can the Shiites be the 
American allies in Iraq and their enemy in the Lebanon?

The problem here would appear to be that the Americans may 
have created a Shiite axis from Iran, through Syria â the 
leadership there is Shiite -  to the Lebanon.  Syria and Iran 
have signed a mutual defence pact.  The key here is Iran.  An 
attack on Iran would run the risk of the Iranians calling 
upon the Shiites in Iraq to break off their partnership with 
the Americans.  If Iran were attacked the pro-imperialist 
Ayat Allah Ali Sistani would in all probability not be able 
to hold his followers on their present collaborationist 
path.  Iraq would accordingly very quickly spiral out of 
control.

So the Americans are faced with a stark choice now.  They 
could go for broke and attack Syria, the Lebanon and Iran. 
The chaos that would ensue would demand that conscription be 
introduced immediately in the States.  Britain and Australia 
would have to do the same if they followed along as usual.  
Crazy as it sounds I suspect that for Bush and his gang, this 
is Plan A.

But Condoleeza Rice would appear to have come up with a Plan 
B during her tour in Europe.  This is to leave Iran out of 
the picture for the moment and to target Lebanon and Syria. 
The French may well have promised to supply troops for such 
an adventure.  Syria and Lebanon are former French colonies 
and traditionally the French have been the allies of the 
Lebanese Christians. 

As I write this it looks to me as if Plan B is being put into 
place. The Americans are pulling back on their anti-Iranians 
moves.  The plans for an Israeli bombing raid on Iranâs 
nuclear facilities seems to have been put on hold.  The talk 
is now of a joint European-American initiative to get Iran to 
abandon the search for nuclear weapons.

That could leave Syria isolated. Where will the attack on 
Syria come from?  Be very certain. It is coming.  Through 
Iraq, is the most likely guess with the coming unrest among 
Syriaâs Kurds providing some excuse. If they go through 
Lebanon, a brutal civil war will break out and I would expect 
that the current alliance of Christians, Druze and Sunnis 
would immediately fall apart leaving America only with their 
traditional Christian allies.

So we are looking at a period of increased chaos and 
bloodshed.  The Americans may try and crash through in one 
enormous effort with an attack on Iran being the pivot, or 
they may try and take out Syria first, then the Hizb Allah in 
Lebanon and leave Iran for the last. Whatever the scenario 
that develops it, the driving force is Americaâs 
determination to reshape South-west Asia (including the 
Middle East) into a zone of dependency and total compliance 
with Americaâs wishes.

For what it is worth I am convinced they will not succeed and 
that they will instead unleash the pent up forces of 
revolutionary Arab nationalism. We shall see.

regards

Gary
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