[Marxism] Shiite fault lines

[Louis Proyect <lnp3@xxxxxxxxx>]

LA Times, January 29, 2005
THE CONFLICT IN IRAQ
Shiites Offer Unified Slate, but Fault Lines Show
By Ashraf Khalil, Times Staff Writer

NAJAF, Iraq ­ The United Iraqi Alliance, the powerful Shiite electoral 
slate expected to hold sway in Sunday's nationwide election, incorporates 
an impressive cross-section of political forces. Assembled under the 
guidance of senior Shiite cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the Alliance 
contains at least four legitimate contenders for the post of Iraq's prime 
minister.

But the sheer political diversity of the Alliance membership has observers 
wondering just how long the show of unity can continue among the Shiites, 
the majority population in Iraq long-oppressed by Saddam Hussein.

The slate, which reads like a who's who of Iraqi Shiite politics, has 
gathered groups who seem to have little common ground beyond a desire to 
benefit from Sistani's considerable influence.

Composed of members of the Dawa Party, the Supreme Council for Islamic 
Revolution in Iraq, Hezbollah, the Iraqi National Congress and followers of 
radical cleric Muqtada Sadr, the Alliance incorporates not only rival 
political factions but ideologies that differ on the relationship between 
religion and state.

Some observers warn of an almost immediate postelection collapse as the 
nascent Iraqi political experiment moves into its next phase: the formation 
of coalitions and alliances within the 275-member national assembly that 
will be choosing the government's leaders.

A partial or full collapse of the Alliance could weaken the unified Shiite 
voice that Sistani has sought for the constitution writing process. In the 
extreme case, it could also open the door for other slates that win seats 
in the national assembly, such as a unified Kurdish slate and a group 
headed by interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, to cobble together a 
functional ruling coalition that includes defecting Alliance members.

In that case, the Alliance would not get to select the nation's prime 
minister and might also have less sway over jobs and contracts filled by 
the new government.

A failure of the Alliance to form a ruling coalition not only would be a 
blow to Sistani's personal prestige as the slate's unofficial patron but 
could prove a demoralizing turn for Iraq's Shiite majority, many of whom 
view this election as a long-overdue political ascension. "It will be 
difficult for us to stay unified. That is expected. There is no real 
coordination," said Sheik Ali Merza, head of the Dawa Party's Najaf office 
and one of many who foresee fissures between traditional Shiite rivals such 
as Dawa and the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq.

full: 
<http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/iraq/la-fg-fissures29jan29,0,3817578.story?coll=la-home-headlines>


Louis Proyect
Marxism list: www.marxmail.org 


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