[Marxism] Re: "We're getting our asses kicked in Iraq"

[Brian Shannon <Brian_Shannon@xxxxxxxxxxx>]

Brzezinski's prediction that a Shiite theocracy might be the result of 
the Iraq elections was also discussed with Brzezinski & Kissinger on 
December 26 in a CNN interview [an article that I posted here Dec. 29 
is below]. Although Kissinger is not one of those referred to in the 
Luttwak piece, his view is interesting because he remains a hawk and 
backed the Iraq invasion, which Brzezinski did not. Kissinger also 
suggests that a "let things fall apart" [predictable "unpredictable 
mayhem" according to Luttwak] option might be the best alternative:

"Kissinger said the United States should not accept a Shiite theocracy 
for all of Iraq. 'And if it reaches this point, then we really have no 
interest in keeping Iraq united. Then we might just as well let each of 
these competing ethnic groups create their own self-government, rather 
than imposing a theocracy on, or cooperate with creating a theocracy 
for all of Iraq.'"

Today's news also quotes Secretary of State Colin Powell suggesting 
that U.S. troops may begin withdrawing later this year, if Iraqi 
military forces can take over from the U.S. This assertion is 
reminiscent of the Kennedy/Johnson propaganda during the Vietnam War, 
where a trumpeted future troop withdrawal was followed by steady 
increase in troops.

Running along with all of this is the "Negroponte Option" to duplicate 
the Latin American death squads in Iraq--as though people who lived 
under Saddam Hussein need training in terror. [We will be undoubtedly 
be able to read the fictionalization of all of these events in future 
years by Robert Ludlum wantabees.]

The good news is that Bush is between a rock and a hard place. This is 
why most of us wished John Kerry had won the 2004 election, not because 
he was "better" than Bush, but because the Lesser Evil would be the 
responsible party.

Brian Shannon
_________________

Brzezinski's unsparing realism leads inexorably to the only logical
conclusion: "If that doesn't work, then I would think that sometime in
the course of this year, if there is something which vaguely
approximates an Iraqi government – in all probability a Shi'ite
theocracy, as a consequence of elections – then I think we should
disengage because staying longer will dig us deeper and deeper in the
conflict."
. . .
Luttwak is not unaware of the possible consequences of an American
withdrawal, yet, like Scowcroft and Brzezinski, he sees this as the
least worst alternative: "The probable consequences of abandoning Iraq
are so bleak, in fact, that few are willing to contemplate them. That is
a mistake. It is precisely because unpredictable mayhem is so
predictable that the United States might be able to disengage from Iraq,
at little cost, or perhaps even advantageously." How so?

"A well-calculated retreat" would not only extricate us from an
increasingly untenable situation, it could also cause the enemy to
over-stretch itself, and – although we don't face a single enemy, but a
multiplicity of hostile parties – the resulting power vacuum may cause
the various factions to pull back from the abyss of civil war. These
factions are united, today, around an overarching antipathy to the U.S.,
but the announcement of a date certain for withdrawal would surely take
the wind out of the pan-Arabic and Islamist grouplets that are thriving
under the occupation.
____________

December 26, 2004

WASHINGTON - Former US national security advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski 
strongly criticised the American-led invasion of Iraq on Sunday and 
said the US administration would have to scale down its ambitions for 
Iraq's future.

Former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger, expressed support for the 
invasion on the same CNN programme, but said the US administration had 
misjudged the difficulty of rebuilding Iraq and guiding it to 
democracy.

Brzezinski, the national security advisor to President Jimmy Carter in 
the 1980s, made a scathing assessment of the US-led invasion in March 
2003 and ensuing occupation after ousting Saddam Hussein as Iraqi 
leader. "I personally think it was not worth it, in the sense that we 
have paid a high price in blood. And it's increasing. You cannot 
underestimate the suffering that this has already produced to tens of 
thousands of American families."

He said tens of thousands of Iraqis have died and added: "We're 
spending billions of dollars, and we have isolated ourselves 
internationally. Now, that is simply not worth the price of removing 
Saddam, because we were containing him. But we are where we are. And 
the problem today is, in my judgment, how to avoid failure."

Brzezinski said the United States "will confront a continuing problem 
and maybe a deepening crisis if there remains this massive 
disproportion between objectives which are unrealistic and means which 
are very limited. If we are very serious about creating an Iraqi 
democracy, let's put in 500,000 troops and let's spend 100 billion, 200 
billion (dollars). We're not going to do it and therefore, we have to 
scale down our expectations."

Kissinger remains a strong supporter of the Bush administration line. 
"I believe that they made fundamentally the right decision in entering 
the war. But they underestimated the complexity of rebuilding a 
democratic society in Iraq under military occupation," he said. 
Kissinger said the whole administration leadership, and not just 
embattled Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, had to look again at the 
political decisions made.

The two also disagreed over the future makeup of Iraq's government.

Brzezinski said there was now a growing probability that a "Shiite 
theocratic government, which is not going to be a genuine democracy" 
would win Iraq's elections to be held on January 30.

Kissinger said the United States should not accept a Shiite theocracy 
for all of Iraq. "And if it reaches this point, then we really have no 
interest in keeping Iraq united. Then we might just as well let each of 
these competing ethnic groups create their own self-government, rather 
than imposing a theocracy on, or cooperate with creating a theocracy 
for all of Iraq
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