[Marxism] Patrick Cockburn's take on the Shia, the insurgents, and the elections

["Fred Feldman" <ffeldman@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Counterpunch
December 10, 2004
Insurgents Oppose the Occupation, Not the Elections
United Front of the Shia

By PATRICK COCKBURN

Baghdad

The most powerful Shia parties in Iraq unveiled an electoral pact
yesterday under which the majority of Shia leaders would stand together
during the election set for 30 January.

Major Sunni factions, whose participation in the vote will be crucial to
making it legitimate, were not, however, included and have not put
forward a list of candidates.

The Shia list of 228 names will have the crucial backing of Ayatollah
Ali al-Sistani, the most influential Shia religious leader. Known as the
United Iraqi Alliance, it should win the support of many Shia voters who
make 60 per cent of Iraq's population.

The group includes two sectarian Shia parties, the Islamic Dawa Party
and the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, as well as the
secular Iraqi National Congress, led by Ahmed Chalabi.

The coalition of 23 parties will put new pressure on the Sunnis to
participate in the election, especially now that it seems far more
likely to proceed.

The 275-member assembly to be elected on 30 January will draw up a
constitution to be submitted to a referendum. Based on this
constitution, there will be a further election on 15 December next year.

While the Alliance may do well at the polls, the extent to which it will
expand the influence of the Shia in Iraq is not clear. Much of the
powerful Sunni community is in revolt and will not vote.

The Kurds, politically experienced and well organised, want to secure a
large measure of autonomy and control of the oil city of Kirkuk, and
they wish to reverse the ethnic cleansing of Kurds that was practised by
Saddam Hussein in northern Iraq.

The Alliance does not include Muqtada al-Sadr or his militant movement,
which has opposed the US occupation. "We have not participated in this
list and we are still suspending our participation in the elections,"
said Ali Shemeism, an aide to Mr Sadr.

"We have been subjected to a campaign of suppression and the arrests
against al-Sadr's followers are continuing." But Hussain al-Shahristani,
who helped draw up the list, said it had Mr Sadr's support.

President George Bush and Tony Blair have portrayed the armed resistance
as opposed to the holding of elections. Its real basis, however, is
opposition to the US occupation.

It has become more sectarian in recent months, because most of the
police and Iraqi National Guardsman killed in suicide attacks are Shia.
The Sunni also resent the lack of Shia criticism of the American assault
against Fallujah.

Mr Sistani has made clear that he opposes the occupation and has refused
to meet US officials. He has, however, sought to steer his community
away from armed revolt and towards participation in an election in which
they can assert their majority.

Mr Bush, responding to criticisms by US troops in the Gulf, said
yesterday that concerns about inadequate equipment were being addressed
and he did not blame soldiers for raising the issue with the Defence
Secretary, Donald Rumsfeld.

A day after he was bombarded with criticism from troops based in Kuwait,
Mr Rumsfeld promised that more would be done to protect forces and that
steps were being taken to deal with explosive devices, a leading cause
of death in Iraq, where more than 1,000 American soldiers have been
killed in action.

The troop complaints put the administration on the defensive after Mr
Bush rejected charges from the Democratic challenger, John Kerry, in
last month's presidential election campaign that the military forces in
Iraq did not have sufficient protection.

Mr Bush said: "The concerns expressed are being addressed, and we expect
our troops to have the best possible equipment. And if I were a soldier
overseas, wanting to defend my country, I'd want to ask the Secretary of
Defence the same question."




_______________________________________________
Marxism mailing list
Marxism@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
http://lists.econ.utah.edu/mailman/listinfo/marxism