[Marxism] thoughts on Iraq

[<g.maclennan@xxxxxxxxxx>]

I have just finished my morning cull thru the papers and the 
list on Iraq.  I know Carroll does not approve of what he 
terms "speculation" and in many ways he is correct, but the 
urge to analyse and talk about what is happening in Iraq is 
very great, for I am still convinced that what is now a 
running sore will turn out to be an instance of morbidity for 
US Imperialism.  It is not only some anonymous "Rag-Head" 
or "Haji" who will be dumped in the morgue, but also the 
hopes, ambitions, and fantasies of the whole Bush cabal.

As someone else pointed out we have passed a whole series of 
markers that were dangled like lights at the end of the 
tunnel in front of the people. The crowds lining the streets 
strewing flowers in the paths of the liberators did not 
emerge. The WMD were not found. Saddam's sons were 
slaughtered, but attacks on americans increased.  Saddam 
himself captured. The resistance grew. 

Each and every landmark was prefaced by a host of 
intellectuals telling us that this was the decisive moment 
and that the tide would now turn.

The latest light at the end of the tunnel - the destruction 
of Fallujah - will also go the same way.  After three weeks 
of unbridled devastation and killing, there is incredibly 
still resistance within the town. 

Meanwhile outside Fallujah, it is open season on all who have 
collaborated with the Americans.  Allawi and his bodyguards 
are reasonably  - but not totally- safe within the Green 
Zone.  However you cannot run a state from behind walls, 
cement barriers, and barbwire.  Someone actually has to leave 
the Green Zone to give orders to someone, to get something 
done.  And now those who give the orders and those who listen 
to them are in mortal peril. 

Their intimidation and their deaths do not make the news 
here.  But this is where the decisive battle is being fought -
 not in the ruins of Fallujah.  What the much 
touted "victory" at Fallujah has done is to build absolute 
support for the dirty work of the resistance - kidnappings, 
beatings, and killings.

Moreover the election, possibly the biggest âlightâ of all is 
now turning out to be yet another shit sandwich for the 
invaders. There will be little or no Sunni participation. 
Those who administer the voting will be in extreme peril.  
Yet the promised elections cannot be postponed without 
provoking the key Shiâite ally â the Ayat Allah Ali Sistani. 

Sistani will get his election and he even may get a Shiâite 
govt.  That after all is the price he has demanded for 
cooperation with the invaders, but his writ will not run 
among the Sunnis or the Kurds. He and his pious minions will 
find themselves in the exact same place as Prime Minister 
Iyad Allawi.  Sistani will need a foreign army to control the 
country. The Arab countries will not be able to lend him that 
army to crush fellow Sunnis.  The Iranians may be willing but 
no one else will want them in Iraq.

So in the short term, Iraq is a disaster.  Medium term, ie 
from now to January, it will be even worse.  Long term it 
will be outside the control of the invaders and it could well 
be the centre of a regional conflagration that will bring 
down the pro-Western regimes.

regards

Gary


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