Re: [Marxism] General claims Fallujah outcome has broken back ofinsurgency

[Carrol Cox <cbcox@xxxxxxxxx>]

g.maclennan@xxxxxxxxxx wrote:
>
> The loss of a no-go area is always a blow to insurgents,
> surely?
>
> But it is far from clear that Fallujah is lost to the
> Resistance.  Once the Marines pack up and go, the Resistance
> will come back.  The Iraqis who are left to patrol will have
> to pay a price for their loyalty to the Americans.  Besides
> the only reliable allies that the USA have got are the Kurds.
>
> If the Marines stay in Fallujah then that means they will be
> not be somewhere else -simple.  The dominant imperative
> remains that the Americans have too few soldiers on the
> ground to secure the Occupation.  The brunt of that truth
> will be borne by the collaborators of course.

If I were to speculate, I would agree with Gary. But . . .

I'm skeptical of speculation on the political/military future in Iraq.
For the time being, the u.s. forces are under pressure: that is a
sufficient peg to rebuild the anti-war movement which the electoral
campaign blunted. That rebuilding is the immediate task of leftists. If
the resistance in Iraq grows, that movement will grow.  Hence,
regardless of our estimate of events in Iraq, our present tasks are
clear. Our present planning should assume a growing anti-war movement,
and our present thinking should be directed to how, given that growth,
we can build further.

If the u.s. succeeds in suppressing that resistance and in establishing
a more-or-less stable puppet regime, so be it. We slog on. I've always,
in big things and small, operated on the rough premise that if we lose,
we lose, we pick ourselves up and go on. But it is _terrible_ to win
(e.g., to have a much larger crowd at a rally than expected) and not be
prepared to build on that win.

Instead of endless speculation on what will happen next in Iraq (which
reminds me of the endless poring over polls of the ABBs during the last
six months), let's speculate on wht we can do within a growing anti-war
movement.

Carrol


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