[Marxism] [Fwd: Elections in the USA and Iraq, etc.]

[Louis Proyect <lnp3@xxxxxxxxx>]

(Forwarded from Anthony)

Some thoughts on the elections in Iraq and the United States, and more.

Next week there will be elections in the USA. From my post here in
Bogota, it looks like a dead heat, but with the momentum swinging in
direction of Kerry. The most likely outcome is a hung election with the
outcome in doubt due to all kinds of fraud and court challenges thereof.

A major electoral crisis - even a constitutional crisis - could result.

This time the Democrats plan to fight over every ballot, unlike last
time when they rolled over and let Bush lick their cocks.

Why is it different this time?

The answer is certainly Iraq.

The bourgeoisie is divided - not over whether they should have invaded
iraq - something about which they remain united.

But over whether or not they can win, and what they should do now that
Bush and friends have so royally (in their view) fucked things up.

Kerry, and probably most of the generals in the Pentagon, and the people
with average or above IQs on Wall Street, realize that controlling Iraq
requires another 250,000 soldiers. (They couldn't do it with that number
either, but that is what they think they need.)

There are only two ways to get those soldiers: buy them from France,
Germany, the UK and Russia - or draft them. Kerry's plan for Iraq is to
buy them, he claims Bush's plan is to draft them. Bush doesn't appear to
have any plan at all except to ask Donald Rumsfeld and to pray to God.
The bourgeoisie is leaning toward Kerry.

Whether or not Kerry can buy the French, Germans, and Russians remains
to be seen. Bush couldn't because he would have had to sell out his
buddies at Haliburton et. al. But Kerry will have no probelm there, in
fact, he can even put a few of them in jail, and maybe use the Patriot
Act to do it. But just handing over Haliburton's contracts to the French
and Russians may not buy very many troops, since those contracts are
worthless under the present security situation.

This means that Kerry, if elected, like Bush if reelcted, is likely to
resort to the draft.

In other words, no matter which of the Tweedles is elcted - Dum or Dee,
even more shit is likely to hit the fan after election day.

If Dum is elected, we need to ask ourselves - will the Democrats vote
for a revived draft? or will they oppose it? Kerry is now campaigning
against it.

If Dee is elected, and proposes a draft, what will the ABB's do? Many of
them will feel betrayed (If they were rational they would not, but
obviously they are not rational.)

In either case we will see a new student movement, much larger than
anything since the 60's and 70's - but only now wihtt he sword of the
Patriot Act hanging over them.

Now we come to Fallujah. Either the US stops its attack, or the Sunnis
boycott the elections in January.

If the US backs down, it will be seen (correctly) as a defeat for
imperialism, and the ranks of all armed opposition groups will grow. US
military morale will sink further.

If the US does not back down, civilian casualties will mount, and the
Sunni election boycott will become reality.

In either case, if elections are actually held, the shia majority are
almost certainly to elect representatives who are anti-US, pro- Iran.

In other words, hold on tight - the roller coaster ride hasn't even begun.

Also, anyone tyring to build demanostrations in the USA is doing the
right thing.

Go Million Workers!

All hte best, Anthony



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