Re: [Marxism] Election results in Germany

[Einde O'Callaghan <einde@xxxxxx>]

Einde O'Callaghan wrote:
> Saxony:
>           2004      1999      Gain      Loss
> CDU         41.1     56.9         -15.8
> PDS         23.9     22.2     +1.7
> SPD          9.8     10.7         - 0.9
> Greens          5.1      2.6     +2.5
> NPD (Nazis)     9.2      1.4     +7.8
> FDP (liberals)     5.9      1.1     +4.8
> Others          5.0      5.1         - 0.1
>
> Seats
>           2004      1999      Gains    Losses
> CDU         55     76         -21
> PDS         31     30     +1
> SPD         13     14         - 1
> Greens         6         +6
> NPD         12         +12
> FDP         7         +7
>
> Brandenburg:
>           2004      1999      Gain    Loss
> SPD         31.9     39.3         -7.4
> CDU         19.4     26.5         -7.1
> PDS         28.0     23.3     +4.7
> Greens          3.6      2.9     +0.7
> FDP          3.3      2.2     +1.1
> DVU (Nazis)     6.1      5.3     +0.8
> Others          7.7      0.9     +6.8
>
> Seats
>           2004      1999      Gains      Losses
> SPD         33     37         -4
> CDU         20     25         -5
> PDS         29     22     +7
> DVU          6      5     +1
>
> I'll try to post an interpretation tomorrow.
The big losers were the CDU and the SPD (their result in Saxony was the
worst ever result in a state election since WW2) and the big winners
were the Nazis, particularly in Saxony.

The PDS made gains in Brandenburg but only managed to hold their vote in
Saxony - this may be connected to an alleged Stasi scandal involving
their main candidate Peter Porsch and a concerted campaign against him
on this issue by the local right-wing and social democratic press.

The key issue was obviously the so-called "reforms" of the welfare
system, particularly the proposed introduction of a new payment system
for teh unemployed in January - this abolishes earnings-related benefits
for the "long-term unemployed", which has been re-defined to mean
unemployed for more than 12 months. The new system will mean greatly
reduced payments for large numbers of unemployed - and in east Germany,
where these elections took place, there is mass unemployment and about
half the unemployed have been out of work for over a year.

The new benefits level will reduce many unemployed into poverty and many
people who now receive unemployment benefits (because it was based on an
insurance principle) will receive nothing (because they have a partner
or other family member who is working and the combined income of teh
family comes over the welfare level.

and to make things worse, this welfare level is actually below the
minimum standard set by the EU!

So it's not surprising that the SPD is getting hammered. What is perhaps
more surprising is that the main opposition party is also being
hammered. But this is perhaps not so surprising since their proposal for
teh welfare system are even more radical than those of teh federal
government and they were responsible for some of the most extreme cuts.

At the moment the fascist right is picking up on the dissatisfaction -
according to an analysis of the swings in Saxony most of their votes
come from the CDU and previous non-voters. Many former supporters of the
CDU also didn't vote this time. these trends are particularly true in
more rural areas. The NPD vote was lower in the cities and teh Greens
did particularly well in leipzig and Dresden.

In some areas with mass unemployment, e.g. the small towns south-east of
Dresden near the Czewch border the NPD picked up almost 3 times as many
votes as the SPD. This area has been notorious for fascist attacks on
political opponents and foreigners.

I suspect that the areas with the highest NPD votes correspond to the
areas with the highest long-term unemployment - but at the moment I
don't have access to the statistics, so I can't verify thisyet.

I'll have to leqave it atr that as I have to go to work now.

Einde O'Callaghan


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