What is going on in Iraq? was Re: [Marxism] US military BOASTS of killing 300 in Najaf as fighting spreads

[<g.maclennan@xxxxxxxxxx>]

At the rate things are going, there may  be a victory parade
down Wall Street to celebrate the next My Lai. Maybe Lynndie
England should replace Cheney on the Bush ticket.

Fred Feldman


Events in  Iraq seem continually to dip below the radar of
rational analysis.  Why pick this fight now with Sadr?

I can only think that the tried and true formula in Iraq (and
elsewhere) is to have a right wing pro-western thug/strongman
in charge.  The last one they had was called Saddam Hussain.
Having flirted with the neo-con fantasy of a market driven,
right wing voting, pro-Israeli Iraq, the USA seems to be
reverting to the strongman model - Allawi is his name.

His credentials as pro-West spook and torturer are
impeccable. The problem is that he cannot be sold to the
Shia. Even though he himself is nominally a Shi'ite.  Hence
perhaps the attack on Sadr.  This is designed to take out the
most vocal of the Shia and is also, possibly, a warning to
the al-Hakim clan and the other Shi'ites who are waiting for
democratic elections to give them power in Iraq. In all
probability however there will be no elections in January.

The struggle then is to spread Allawi's writ beyond the Pale
of the Green Zone. What I am suggesting is that there has
been a change or shift in USA policy.  The upcoming
presiential election tends possibly to obscure that same
shift.

What has been shelved I think is the neo-con wish list.  Real
politik has taken over and all stops will be pulled out to
stabilise Iraq under Allawi or something like him. Hence the
need to destroy the major alternative model - that of a pro-
Iran clerically led Iraq.

By the time the anti-Sadr Shi'ites of the al-Hakim clan and
the Da'wa party wake up to what is going down, Sadr could
have been crushed and they will have no option but to give in
once more to a Sunni dictatorship led by Allawi. It is a high
risk stategy, and depends a lot I supect on al-Sistani's
ability to keep the Shia waiting hopefully for democratic
elections.


regards

Gary



regards

Gary

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