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By JIM KRANE, AP

BAGHDAD, Iraq (July 9) - Contrary to U.S. government claims, the insurgency 
in Iraq is led by well-armed Sunnis angry about losing power, not foreign 
fighters, and is far larger than previously thought, American military 
officials 
say.

            
    

AP


''We're not at the forefront of a jihadist war here,'' said a U.S. military 
official in Baghdad, speaking on condition of anonymity.
        
            

The officials told The Associated Press the guerrillas can call on loyalists 
to boost their forces to as high as 20,000 and have enough popular support 
among nationalist Iraqis angered by the presence of U.S. troops that they 
cannot 
be militarily defeated.

That number is far larger than the 5,000 guerrillas previously thought to be 
at the insurgency's core. And some insurgents are highly specialized - one 
Baghdad cell, for instance, has two leaders, one assassin, and two groups of 
bomb-makers.

Although U.S. military analysts disagree over the exact size, the insurgency 
is believed to include dozens of regional cells, often led by tribal sheiks 
and inspired by Sunni Muslim imams.

The developing intelligence picture of the insurgency contrasts with the 
commonly stated view in the Bush administration that the fighting is fueled by 
foreign warriors intent on creating an Islamic state.

            
    
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''We're not at the forefront of a jihadist war here,'' said a U.S. military 
official in Baghdad, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The military official, who has logged thousands of miles driving around Iraq 
to meet with insurgents or their representatives, said a skillful Iraqi 
government could co-opt some of the guerrillas and reconcile with the leaders 
instead of fighting them.

''I generally like a lot of these guys,'' he said. ''We know who the key 
people are in all the different cities, and generally how they operate. The 
problem is getting actionable information so you can either attack them, arrest 
them 
or engage them.''

Even as Iraqi leaders wrangle over the contentious issue of offering a broad 
amnesty to guerrilla fighters, the new Iraqi military and intelligence corps 
have begun gathering and sharing information on the insurgents with the U.S. 
military, providing a sharper picture of a complex insurgency.

''Nobody knows about Iraqis and all the subtleties in culture, appearance, 
religion and so forth better than Iraqis themselves,'' said U.S. Army Lt. Col. 
Daniel Baggio, a military spokesman at Multinational Corps headquarters in 
Baghdad. ''We're very optimistic about the Iraqis' use of their own human 
intelligence to help root out these insurgents.''

The intelligence boost has allowed American pilots to bomb suspected 
insurgent safe houses over the past two weeks, with Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad 
Allawi 
saying Iraqis supplied information for at least one of those airstrikes. But 
the better view of the insurgency also contradicts much of the popular wisdom 
about it.

Estimates of the insurgents' manpower tend to be too low. Last week, a former 
coalition official said 4,000 to 5,000 Baathists form the core of the 
insurgency, with other attacks committed by a couple hundred supporters of 
Jordanian 
militant Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and hundreds of other foreign fighters.

            
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Anthony Cordesman, an Iraq analyst with the Center for Strategic and 
International Studies, said the figure of 5,000 insurgents ''was never more 
than a wag 
and is now clearly ridiculous.''

''Part-timers are difficult to count, but almost all insurgent movements 
depend on cadres that are part-time and that can blend back into the 
population,'' 
he said.

U.S. military analysts disagree over the size of the insurgency, with 
estimates running as high as 20,000 fighters when part-timers are added.

Ahmed Hashim, a professor at the U.S. Naval War College, said the higher 
numbers squared with his findings in a study of the insurgency completed in 
Iraq.

One hint that the number is larger is the sheer volume of suspected 
insurgents - 22,000 - who have cycled through U.S.-run prisons. Most have been 
released. And in April alone, U.S. forces killed as many as 4,000 people, the 
military 
official said, including Sunni insurgents and Shiite militiamen fighting 
under the banner of a radical cleric.

There has been no letup in attacks. On Thursday, insurgents detonated a car 
bomb and then attacked a military headquarters in Samarra, a center of 
resistance in the Sunni Triangle 60 miles north of the capital, killing five 
U.S. 
soldiers and one Iraqi guardsman.

Guerrilla leaders come from various corners of Saddam's Baath Party, 
including lawyers' groups, prominent families and especially from his Military 
Bureau, 
an internal security arm used to purge enemies. They've formed dozens of 
cells.

U.S. military documents obtained by AP show a guerrilla band mounting attacks 
in Baghdad that consists of two leaders, four sub-leaders and 30 members, 
broken down by activity. There is a pair of financiers, two cells of car 
bomb-builders, an assassin, separate teams launching mortar and rocket attacks, 
and 
others handling roadside bombs and ambushes.

Most of the insurgents are fighting for a bigger role in a secular society, 
not a Taliban-like Islamic state, the military official said. Almost all the 
guerrillas are Iraqis, even those launching some of the devastating car 
bombings 
normally blamed on foreigners - usually al-Zarqawi.

The official said many car bombings bore the ''tradecraft'' of Saddam's 
former secret police and were aimed at intimidating Iraq's new security 
services.

Many in the U.S. intelligence community have been making similar points, but 
have encountered political opposition from the Bush administration, a State 
Department official in Washington said, also speaking on condition of anonymity.

Civilian analysts generally agreed, saying U.S. and Iraqi officials have long 
overemphasized the roles of foreign fighters and Muslim extremists.

Such positions support the Bush administration's view that the insurgency is 
linked to the war on terror. A closer examination paints most insurgents as 
secular Iraqis angry at the presence of U.S. and other foreign troops.

''Too much U.S. analysis is fixated on terms like 'jihadist,' just as it 
almost mindlessly tries to tie everything to (Osama) bin Laden,'' Cordesman 
said. 
''Every public opinion poll in Iraq ... supports the nationalist character of 
what is happening.''

Many guerrillas are motivated by Islam in the same way religion motivates 
American soldiers, who also tend to pray more when they're at war, the U.S. 
military official said.

He said he met Tuesday with four tribal sheiks from Ramadi who ''made very 
clear'' that they had no desire for an Islamic state, even though mosques are 
used as insurgent sanctuaries and funding centers.

'''We're not a bunch of Talibans,''' he paraphrased the sheiks as saying.

At the orders of Gen. John Abizaid, the U.S. commander of Mideast operations, 
Army analysts looked closely for evidence that Iraq's insurgency was adopting 
extreme Islamist goals, the official said. Analysts learned that ridding Iraq 
of U.S. troops was the motivator for most insurgents, not the formation of an 
Islamic state.

The officer said Iraq's insurgents have a big advantage over guerrillas 
elsewhere: plenty of arms, money, and training. Iraq's lack of a national 
identity 
card system - and guerrillas' refusal to plan attacks by easily intercepted 
telephone calls - makes them difficult to track.

''They have learned a great deal over the last year, and with far more 
continuity than the rotating U.S. forces and Iraqi security forces,'' Cordesman 
said 
of the guerrillas. ''They have learned to react very quickly and in ways our 
sensors and standard tactics cannot easily deal with.''



07-09-04 0654 EDT

Copyright 2004 The Associated Press. The information contained in the AP news 
report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or otherwise distributed 
without the prior written authority of The Associated Press. All active 
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