[Marxism] [Canada] No Lib-NDP gov likely: what it means to war resisters

["David Quarter" <davidquarter@xxxxxxxxxxxx>]

From: Gerry Condon [mailto:right2resist@xxxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: June 25, 2004 6:11 PM
To: right2resist@xxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: The Canadian Election and Sanctuary for U.S. War
Resisters



NO LIBERAL-NDP GOVERNMENT LIKELY:
June 25, 2004
What Does This Mean for U.S. War Resisters in Canada?

According to several credible polls today, three days before
Canada's federal elections, the Liberal Party and the Conservative
Party are in a statistical deadheat.  While the Liberals show a
slight lead percentage-wise (32% to 31%), the Conservatives are
ahead in total seats, 117 to 101.  The New Democratic Party
(NDP), with 17%, is expected to win only 24 seats.  Control of 155
seats would be necessary to rule.  Very significantly, this means
that the Liberals and NDP together will not have enough seats to
form a majority coalition.  Too bad for our side, including supporters
of sanctuary for war resisters, because this outcome was
considered by progressives to be the best one possible.  Unless,
these polls are way wrong, or there is a big last minute change,
this outcome is no longer possible.

What now appears likely is a government leading pundits are
alreay labeling "dysfunctional," and possibly short-lived.  The Bloc
Quebecois, making its strongest showing ever, is expected to win
66 of Quebec's 75 seats, and will thus be in a position to decide
who forms the next government, to demand considerable
concessions for Quebec, and to bring the government down at any
time.  If the Conservatives do indeed win the most seats, they will
likely get the first chance to form a government.  But would the
Conservatives and the Bloc, whose programs have very little in
common, be able to make a deal?  If not, then the Bloc might
support a Liberal-led government.  Though Liberal Prime Minister
Paul Martin has recently poured cold water on this possibility, he
might change his tune.


Sanctuary for War Objectors Needs Discussion within the Bloc
Quebecois

Given the current math, the NDP, which supports sanctuary for war
resisters, will not be wielding much influence of all.  It becomes all
the more important that progressive grassroots forces within the
Bloc Quebecois take up the cause of sanctuary for war resisters.
The Bloc's initial response to a recent inquiry from the Canadian
Peace Alliance was negative, but the issue of sanctuary for war
objectors has not been discussed throughout the Bloc.  Sanctuary
supporters can count on help from the Colectif Echec a La Guerre,
the Stop the War coalition in Quebec, who are featuring Jeremy
Hinzman at their antiwar forum in Montreal this Friday evening
(tonight, 6/25/04).

Little discussed is the possibility of some sort of alliance between
the Liberals and Conservatives.  While this might seem odd at first
look, they do share a slash-and-burn approach to social programs.
The Conservatives decimated Ontario's social programs, and the
Liberals have been doing the same in Quebec.  Neither party wants
to give too much influence to the separatists in Quebec.  And the
leaders of both parties want yet closer ties to Washington, bad
news for those who want to see a strong, independent Canada.  A
Liberal-Conservative or Conservative-Liberal coalition would
certainly not be good news for those wishing for a government
sympathetic to U.S. war objectors.


War Resisters Enjoy Strong Support from Many Canadians

War resisters and their supporters may be discouraged by the
outcome of Canada?s election (or by this analysis).  But we should
keep our strengths in mind as well.  First, we have international law
on our side.  On July 7, Jeremy Hinzman and his lawyer, Jeffry
House, will make a very strong case before the Immigration and
Refugee Board in Toronto.  The U.S. war in Iraq is clearly illegal
under international law.  It is one huge war crime, from beginning to
end, and is widely condemned around the world.  Even the majority
of people in the United States now see the war as wrong-headed,
according to several recent polls.

Most significantly, there is strong support among many Canadians
for sanctuary for U.S. war resisters in Canada.  The next
government, whatever its shape, will not likely want to expose itself
to the intense fallout, both national and international, that would
surely come with any attempt to turn war objectors over to U.S.
authorities for imprisonment and persecution.  Too many people
understand that Jeremy Hinzman and Brandon Hughey did exactly
the right thing when they refused to participate in an illegal,
immoral war.

The struggle continues.

For Peace and Justice,
Gerry Condon

Right to Resist
Resisters of Past Wars
Standing with War Resisters Today
right2resist@xxxxxxxxxxx

(416) 922-5613

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