[Marxism] More on what's next in Iraq.

[<g.maclennan@xxxxxxxxxx>]

I have finished my daily trawl through the net on material
about Iraq.  I am as always heavily indebted to Juan Cole for
my information, though of course I do not share his liberal,
pro-meritocrat politcs.

I am in dispute with a friend as to what is to happen now.  I
tend to think that a Kerry led administration will inject
more troops in an attempt to win the war, and that what we
are witnessing at present is merely a kind of lull brought
about by the exigencies of domestic politics in the USA.

My friend has argued that I am wrong and that America is
manoeuvering to be asked to leave by the administration it
has set up.  That he argues will save American face.

I tend not to agree, but am far from certain about my
position.  It is possible that the UN's Brahimi could cobble
together a group of Iraqis with more credibility than the
current crop of stooges in the Governing Council.  But for
them to ask the Americans to leave would be to expose
themselves to assasination.

Besides the problem with the get asked to leave scenario is
that it is too sensible and smart a strategy for the bunch of
clowns in the White House.  They have been dumb and stupid
and wrong about Iraq from day one.  Why should they get any
smarter now?

So I am still inclined to believe that we will see a renewed
attempt to crash through following the November elections.

Of course it is the worst kind of hubris to attempt to
forecast the future. Especially as there is an amazingly
fluid quality about the present situation and almost anything
is possible.

Currently the only thing going for the Imperialists is that
there appears to be at least a three way split in the Shia
with Muqtada occupying the pro-theocratic and anti-American
wing, while being opposed by the pro-American al Hakim
faction and with al Sistani vacillating in the middle, but
inclining towards the invaders by instinct.  However such is
the advanced state of decay of the occupying forces at a
military and political level, that al Sistani might be
tempted to throw his lot behind the Muqtada push.  Should he
do so then it will be all over with the Coalition of the
Willing and their running dogs.

Why though the continuinuing attacks on Muqtada's army?
Partly I think because Bremer & co do not know what else to
do.  Six weeks ago in all probability the al Hakim clan gave
them the go ahead to take out al Sadr.  That coupled with the
disaster in Fallujah, completely derailed the Occupation.
The Abu Ghraib scandal provided the finishing touch.

Contemplating the disaster that is the invasion and
occupation of Iraq, I am inclined to think that all in all
the times are delightful as Marx once said.

regards

Gary

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