[Marxism] Bush's oratory, popular beliefs help him maintain support

["Fred Feldman" <ffeldman@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

The presence of children, friends, and neighbors among the US troops
continues to be a strong pressure on many people to support the war.
And the fact that both major party candidates stand for continuing the
war, and that Kerry seems to favor more troops and a draft, makes it
logical to stick with Bush. At the same time, people probably have a
built-in sense that Kerry is somehow "weak" on the war even as he makes
support for imperialist wars central to his platform.

Kerry also has a real Nader problem.  Keeping Nader off the ballot was
and is key to Kerry's strategy of keeping the antiwar vote in his pocket
while carrying out a strong prowar, pro-militarist campaign.  As the
Nation and other opponents of any third candidate understood, Nader's
presence means that Kerry loses votes by making this move -- which they
knew he would make as a normal capitalist electoral procedure.

The popular beliefs that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, Saddam
was involved in 9/11, and that the war has wide international support
are simply beliefs that ordinary people MUST hold in order to "support"
the troops, and these beliefs will not dissipate despite the facts until
most people have decided that the war must be ended and US troops must
come home -- or until the ruling class stages a major public relations
campaign to clarify their minds about the situation, in which case the
rulers will have much more difficulty continuing the war.

Right now I think the dominant sectors of the ruling class are open to
sticking with Bush, but they would prefer Bush without Rumsfeld and
Cheney.
Fred Feldman



Bush's oratory helps maintain support for war
President George W. Bush during the Pennsylvania State Association of
Township Supervisors conference April 19.
ANALYSIS
By Dana Milbank

Updated: 11:29 p.m. ET April  24, 2004WASHINGTON - With skillful use of
language and images, President Bush and his aides have kept the American
public from turning against the war in Iraq despite the swelling number
of U.S. casualties there.



Released APRIL 21, 2004


Even with the loss of more than 700 U.S. troops in Iraq, recent
uprisings against the U.S.-led occupation there, a dwindling number of
allies and the failure to find weapons of mass destruction, a majority
of Americans still believe that going to war in Iraq was the right thing
to do. By 52 percent to 41 percent, Americans trust Bush more than
Democratic challenger John F. Kerry (Mass.) to handle the Iraq
situation, according to last week's Washington Post/ABC News Poll -- a
double-digit improvement for Bush from a month before.

Political strategists and public-opinion experts say a good part of this
resilience of public support for Bush and the Iraq war stems from the
president's oratory. They say Bush has convinced Americans of three key
points that strongly influence overall support for the war: that the
United States will prevail in Iraq; that the fighting in Iraq is related
to the war against al Qaeda; and that most Iraqis and many foreign
countries support U.S. actions in Iraq.


At the same time, the administration has limited damaging images of the
cost of war in Iraq. While the president has met privately with the
families of many of the war victims, Bush has not attended any funeral
for fallen soldiers, and until last week the administration barred the
public release of images of flag-draped caskets.

Bush's opponents say he is building support for the Iraq war -- and
himself -- by deceiving the public. "He has not leveled with the
American people about the true cost of the war, how long we'll be there,
or the number of troops that will be needed," said Kerry spokeswoman
Stephanie Cutter. "Americans would rather see sound policy rather than
just positive rhetoric."

But others say that while support for the war has eroded, Bush deserves
credit for keeping the bottom from falling out. "Administration rhetoric
-- and more importantly, the reality that Bush is very resolved and is
not afraid to show it -- has undoubtedly helped shore up public
support," said Peter D. Feaver, a Duke University political scientist
who served on President Bill Clinton's National Security Council.
"Moreover, administration rhetoric is tailored to address key features
of public opinion -- not only the public's concern for success but even
the specific indicators of success that resonate with the public."

Confidence and resolve
Bush's chief campaign strategist, Matthew Dowd, said "it's hard to say"
how much the president's rhetoric shapes public impression. But he said
support for the war would definitely have slipped further if Bush had
wavered.

"He shows resolve, and the public wants resolve," Dowd said.

Dowd also said Bush has been aided by a Kerry position on Iraq that
mixes support for the war with criticism of Bush. "The public has
decided [Iraq] has problems. But whose vision do we support?" he asked.
"Kerry has supported either no viable or no acceptable alternative."

This is not to say support for war in Iraq (or for Bush) is robust.
Although 51 percent say the war in Iraq was worth fighting, that is down
from 70 percent in April 2003. And although they say Bush is handling
Iraq better than Kerry would, 54 percent disapprove of Bush's
performance.

Though the administration's words and imagery have helped to keep a
majority from turning against the war, strategists say that could easily
happen if Iraq's stability deteriorates further with the June 30
handover of power. War support could also fall sharply if Kerry were to
sharpen his criticism, as he did in a television ad last week.

But so far, Bush has been able to convince the country of several key
points that pollsters have identified as indicators of public support
for the war. For example, Bush has never wavered in his confidence in
the success of the war effort. "We're carrying out a decision that has
already been made and will not change: Iraq will be a free, independent
country," Bush said at an April 13 news conference.

Bush has also encouraged a public perception that most Iraqis want
Americans in Iraq -- another key support indicator. He said the uprising
is the work of a "violent few" and is "not a popular uprising."

Bush also encouraged a view that there is broad foreign support for the
war. "Other nations and international institutions are stepping up to
their responsibilities in building a free and secure Iraq," he said.

Bush has also tied the Iraq war closely to the more popular war on
terrorism. At the news conference, he spoke of "terrorists from other
countries" who are in Iraq and said: "By helping to secure a free Iraq,
Americans serving in that country are protecting their fellow citizens."


Finally, Bush has continued to assert that Iraq may have had weapons of
mass destruction and that it had ties to al Qaeda. "They could still be
there," Bush said at his news conference of Iraq's weapons.

Rhetoric versus reality
All these assertions are debatable and highly disputed. But the public
appears to have accepted Bush's views. For example, a poll released last
week by the University of Maryland's Program on International Policy
Attitudes found that 60 percent of Americans thought Iraq had weapons of
mass destruction just before the war or thought it had a major weapons
program. The poll also found that 57 percent thought Iraq gave
"substantial support" to al Qaeda or thought Iraq was directly involved
in the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.

The poll also found that 70 percent of those who believe Iraq was
helping al Qaeda were supportive of the war in Iraq, and 87 percent who
thought Iraq had weapons of mass destruction backed the war.

While these public perceptions sustain support for the war despite
mounting casualties, opinion experts warn that the support could
collapse if the public stops agreeing with Bush on these points. "As
people come to the perception that Iraq didn't have weapons of mass
destruction or links to al Qaeda, the benefits of going to war decline,"
said Steven Kull, author of the University of Maryland study. "As the
costs rise, that could lead to a frustration or a dissatisfaction that
could hurt the president."

It is likely that Democrats' challenges to Bush on Iraq will grow more
fierce; they have intensified in recent weeks. The administration
"misled Congress and the American people, because the administration
knew that it could not obtain the consent of Congress for the war if all
the facts were known," Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (D-Mass.) said in a speech
earlier this month. "Saying whatever it takes to prevail has become a
standard operating procedure in the Bush White House."

Last week's release by the Air Force of images of flag-draped caskets --
many of the Iraq war dead -- underscored the danger that public opinion
could easily shift. The Pentagon moved quickly to block the release of
more photos. A spokesman for Bush said that the president thought the
photos of the dead were "a testament to their service" but suggested
that the ban would remain because of the "privacy" of families.

Republican pollster Frank Luntz said Bush's public show of resolve has
"absolutely" prevented such images of death and violence from swaying
the public. "If he was halting, indecisive, the pictures would overwhelm
the message," he said.

Still unknown is how long Bush's positive oratory can hold off negative
imagery. Duke's Feaver said the show of determination "is no longer
sufficient to prop up support" and warned: "The rhetoric has to match
the reality in Iraq, and if the situation on the ground deteriorates,
then the administration will face an increasingly Herculean task keeping
public support strong."

 C 2004 The Washington Post Company


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