[Marxism] I feel a draft coming (was Re: CNN poll...)

["Jose G. Perez" <elgusanorojo@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Mark Lause wrote, "Talk of conscription comes from idiot reactionaries
consulting other idiot reactionaries."

I don't think so. There is increasing buzz in ruling class circles about
reinstating the draft. Ralph Nader --correctly, IMHO-- is focusing a lot
of his campaign message on this.

The fact is that the Rummy's new military doctrine isn't working, and
when you think about it, isn't likely to. The idea was to offload from
the armed forces a lot of logistics and support for the actual fighting
units. Viewed in terms of the number of "grunts" whose primary role is
combat, the U.S. army in Iraq right now isn't that much smaller than in
Vietnam. The number is manipulated even more because the figure everyone
is fixated on is the 134,000 said to be within Iraq's borders. There's
several tens of thousands more in neighboring countries, though.
Probably the way to figure our the actual forces in the Iraqi theater of
operations is to get the total CENTCOM manpower and subtract what's
inside Afghanistan. My guess is something on the order of
200,000-250,000 is the *real* size of the U.S. Iraqi force, including
those in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, etc., offshore on ships and so on.

Right now a lot of the logistics are being handled by the corporations.
That's what the four mercs who got killed in Fallujah were doing. They
were a security detail for the supply convoys to the Marine base.
Officially they were described as providing security for food deliveries
in the area, but you can be sure they weren't guarding peasants bringing
their goods to market. If there is no major security threat, then
perhaps people like that can deal with bandits or whatever. But if
you're fighting a well-organized guerrilla force, then a little squad of
paramilitaries is likely to get rubbed out. Then the units that have to
operate have to do it within a well-structured military force, with
intelligence, communications, reserves, a clear chain of command. Viewed
as a military force, these little grouplets of mercenaries being used to
guard convoys are just too "light" to deal with the kind of situation
they're facing on the ground in Iraq. And they are very expensive.

And a lot of the company employees that go there aren't exactly
mercenaries. They're not military adventurers and soldiers of fortune,
they're truck drivers of fortune, so to speak. You're not going to
succeed in retaining those people if a lot of them are getting killed.
The U.S. clearly needs tens of thousands more troops to secure and
operate its lines of communications. 

Right now the administration is hoping a political solution will drop
into its lap that will take the steam out of the rebellion. In fact
things have been going the other way. The more time goes on, the more
they kill, they more enemies the Americans make, the more they convince
the Iraqis that the ONLY way to get them out of the country is to DRIVE
them out. 

So, yes, a big push to reinstate the draft is coming. That's what the
logic of the military situation on the ground says. Economic compulsion
isn't enough, in my judgment, to get sufficient numbers of troops for
what needs to be done, and the U.S. cannot easily afford to simply
accept defeat in Iraq. Accepting defeat in Iraq is likely to mean
pulling the plug on a whole series of reactionary regimes in the region.
By this time next year it will be THE big issue, if it hasn't already
been pushed through by President Bush or Kerry.

José



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