[Marxism] Is China the next bubble?

[David Walters <dwalters@xxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Louis, this an interesting summation of the situation in China. I don't
know if, in fact, this is an actual 'bubble' as we're used to:
inflationary credit, debt, construction (office and not productive
construction), stock markets doubling and tripling, all based on an
increase of fictitious capital and the like.

Additionally, one aspect of the growth of the economy not mentioned in
the article is the heavy infrastructure development, especially outside
of Southeast China, most notably in the populous 'center' and less
populous west of the country. In my industry, the power industry, China
represents a huge vacuum, depository, 'bank' for energy companies
export of capital. The article in the NY Times mentions the increase in
electrical 'load' but doesn't mention the gov'ts response to it.

For a while about 2 years ago, China had more power plant projects
projected/on-the-drawing board than the US did in the midst of the
California energy crisis! That's fallen, but power plant new builds are
a major industry there. So are transmission lines to bring the power to
areas of growth. Many, if not most of these new projects, are joint
ventures between the Chinese gov't and foreign power companies (the
same ones that raped California two years ago)...and between *private*
Chinese companies and these same foreign companies. Deals on costs per
Kwh are being modeled on the similar price structure set up in the
deregulated market in the Northeast of the US.

This sort of infrastructure development is not the kind usually
associated with *strictly* Malquiadora type industry, industry that
often dominates the growth figures reported by the NY Times. I do not
know, but wish I did, the actual percentage of growth that these type
of fly-by-night-sneeker-and-toys production represents in that 8%
growth rate mentioned by the NYT.

To be honest, I haven't a clue about what it all means...all I know is
that the working class is taking it on the chin as massive amounts of
state industry in steel, auto, electrical equipment manufacturing,
mining are closing down or selling out to foreigners. 110 Million
unemployed peasants not just 'looking for work' but actually being
thrown off there land, trying to get to the cities only to be hounded
by the cops...sound familiar?

I returned from a two trip about a year ago and saw some of what Louis'
friend mentioned, traveling to heart of Guandong province (Special
Economic Zone), the heart of which is the Hong Kong -- Canton corridor.
It did look like industrial and finance capital gone wild...there was
*nothing* of a "workers state" in evidence, more like scenes out of
Engels "The History of the Working Class in England".

We'll see if this bubble bursts, I don't think so, at least not for a
long time. Also, China is sort of a super power in it's own right...the
US could not do to China what it has done to Iraq...it's militarily
impossible. China is a sort of independent (yet highly dependent!)
growing capitalist country that can't be pushed around. Interesting...

David


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