New LATimes poll; Huffington drops out

["Jose G. Perez" <jg_perez@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

There's a new LA Times poll out, and simultaneously with its release,
news has come that Arianna announced she is leaving the race.

Although she's claiming that the reason she is withdrawing is to stop
Schwarzenegger, the latest polls suggest a more immediate explanation:
her support has completely evaporated. The CNN Gallup poll showed her
with 1% compared to 5% for Camejo; in the LA Times poll she has 0%
compared to 3% for Camejo.

This is a humiliating showing for the petty-bourgeois forces that
Huffington represents and sought to appeal to. Much better known than
Camejo, and having gotten much more extensive press coverage during the
campaign, those of her initial supporters who weren't simply confused
Republicans who hadn't followed her evolution defected either to Camejo
or to Bustamante.

Those who defected to Camejo did so because of the kind of campaign he
has been running, focused on a message with a clear *class* edge --solve
the budget crisis by taxing the rich-- that targeted the two-party
system. Camejo's support on election day will come from a hard core who
have been convinced to break with the two major parties, whereas Arianna
never sought to promote that kind of sentiment, in fact, she is showing
she herself doesn't believe it.

If it were true that her main motivation was a "realpolitik" calculation
to prevent Schwarzenegger from becoming governor, then the obvious
course is to stay as a formal candidate to promote a "no" vote on the
recall or an Earl Browder style "Defeat Schwarzenegger at all costs"
line. With this decision, by tomorrow evening she will be yesterday's
news, whereas Camejo will still be speaking out.

Tactically, I think Camejo is right to make nice-sounding noises about
understanding that some who might prefer him will vote Bustamante. It is
an awkward sort of stance, but the last thing you want to do in speaking
to the masses is to alienate them. It is undoubtedly an adaptation to
the political backwardness of even the more forward-looking layers of
the broad masses, but it seems to me a correct pedagogical adaptation.

Many socialists will undoubtedly look askance at such statements,
viewing them as a bridge over which people will leave the camp of
independent politics to head back to the Democrats. Frankly, I don't
think anyone was waiting for Camejo's blessing before crossing over, and
instead what he is doing is trying to get a hearing among those who will
hold their noses even as they vote for Bustamante. "I will stay in until
the end. I want to use this last week to convince the base of the
Democratic Party of how they have suffered because of the dysfunctional
nature of the Democratic Party and its subservience to the same
interests that fund the Republican Party."

José


~~~~~~~
PLEASE clip all extraneous text before replying to a message.