RE: What is at stake RE: dead in the woods

["Jose G. Perez" <jgperez@xxxxxxxxxxx>]

Gary MacLennan:
Of course behind the scenes there will be things said and apologies made

but Blair will be given his fig leaf and Anan may well cobble together a

Coalition of the not so willing to bail the Americans and the British
out
in Iraq.  Certainly that is his aim.

My comment:

I think you're undoubtedly right in your estimate, and a coalition may
well be cobbled together, whether a U.S.-led occupation force with more
troops from some other countries looks much different to the Iraqis than
the current U.S.-led occupation force with some troops from other
countries remains to be seen. I hear Nicaragua and I think Guatemala
have signed up to supply several thousand troops, a brigade or better.
The effectiveness of such a force component is an open question.

For the purposes of pacifying Iraqi sentiment, I don't think "United
Nations" carries all that much weight.

Also, if the Iraqi resistance is at all capable of acting strategically,
they may well target specifically whatever regime sending troops is most
vulnerable politically. If under the impact of casualties that regime
starts to wobble on the commitment, then the whole structure of the new
coalition of the not-so-willing goes into a political crisis.

Ultimately, what is needed is a stable social base for a U.S. client
regime, that can't be improvised overnight, but must be developed.

Jose