Harry Stockwin on the diplomatic impasse in North Korea

["Jurriaan Bendien" <bendien@xxxxxxxxxxxx>]

(...) the most intractable problem remains: the precise nature of North
Korea's nuclear threat. Again it is necessary to refer to the deadlock that
emerged at the April tripartite talks in Beijing. The basic American
position was that North Korea must agree to dismantle its nuclear weapons
program "completely, verifiably and irreversibly" before other matters could
be discussed. The basic North Korean position was that the U.S. must first
agree to security guarantees, aid and other benefits before North Korea
agrees to waive its option to make, test or sell nuclear weapons.

These completely contrary positions indicate that the Americans do not have
full information about the North's nuclear program: They don't know where
the North's uranium-enrichment program is; they don't know precisely where,
apart from Yongbyon, North Korea may be reprocessing spent fuel rods into
weapons-grade plutonium; and they don't know where any nuclear weapons may
be. Without such information, there can be no dismantling of North Korea's
nuclear program.

Secrecy is the North's one certain weapon. If its nuclear program is largely
bluff, as some think, then of course it cannot afford to disclose this
information. But if its nuclear program is for real, it cannot afford to
disclose this information either, since doing so will place its security in
jeopardy by possibly inviting the Americans to carry out a preemptive
military strike.

Yet if North Korean secrecy is sustained, there is no way that North Korea's
nuclear threat can be eliminated completely, verifiably and irreversibly. So
even if a real conference takes place between the six nations, they are
likely to reach an insurmountable impasse.

All six nations are ostensibly united by a desire to find a diplomatic
solution. But finding such a solution looks close to impossible, and will
require a great deal of empathy and imagination.

Harvey Stockwin has covered Asian affairs since 1955, and broadcasts a
weekly commentary "Reflections From Asia" over Radio-TV Hong Kong.

The Japan Times: Aug. 15, 2003

Complete article:
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/geted.pl5?eo20030815ht.htm