a little oil for thought

[Les Schaffer <schaffer@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

talked w/ a geophysicist friend of mine (working in non-US gov't
research center on mining/exploration) via NetMeeting last nite:

1.) friend says it costs upwards of $100M per seismic study of a new
oil field in the North Sea. he says companies will pay big bucks to
get a sure strike. but companies do not plan their exploration with
the best interests of the global population in mind (surprise
surprise). they go where they think they have highest probability of
getting return on their quite substantial exploration/investment
petrodollar.

2.) friend says that while most geophysicists do not go around talking
explictly about Hubbert peaks, few resist the notion of a finite
supply with bell-shaped extraction curve. 20, 40, 100 years are time
frames quoted.

3.) friend says he has no problem with notion of oil company control
of output valves to manufacture scarcity or plenty locally in time and
space. but global problem of decreasing return on investment remains.

4.) friend says exploration for new reserves is multi-step, lengthy
process. roughly: first to study area geology for __possibilities__
for oil fields, followed by seismic studies if and only if there is
excellent chance of finding something. seismic studies are localized
in space. when i asked friend if the whole earth's surface could be
mapped seismically (hell, lets find it ALL, NOW!), he laughed at me in
a way i intuitively understood.

5.) friend says that many mining companies spend big bucks on research
to find gold, while not spending enough on finding more vital raw
materials.

6.) to get an idea to what depths oil companies will go to help them
in their seismic studies:

  http://abcnews.go.com/sections/business/WorkingWiser/texaco990910.html


7.) http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,3604,922692,00.html
    http://business-timestest.asia1.com.sg/news/story/0,4567,76675,00.html
    http://onebusiness.nzoom.com/cda/printable/1,1856,211508,00.html  (date???)

8.) http://www.dawn.com/2001/04/04/nat9.htm
    http://www.ran.org/oilreport/africa.html

9.) http://english.pravda.ru/economics/2003/01/10/41867.html
    http://english.pravda.ru/economics/2003/01/08/41732.html
    http://english.pravda.ru/economics/2003/01/08/41723.html

   (keep trying these links, they are intermittent)
                




les schaffer