From the Guardian

[Gary MacLennan <g.maclennan@xxxxxxxxxx>]

From today's editorial in the Guardian:

"In the end, the British forces, like those of the US, remain an occupying
army whether or not they are wearing their helmets: their position is
compromised by the chaotic administration imposed by Washington's envoys.
President Bush's obsession with "catching Saddam", voiced again yesterday,
is not a solution. What is needed is a coherent plan to hand back Iraq to
the Iraqis rather than the limping measures taken so far. Yesterday six
British soldiers paid the tragic price for this ineptitude: it was too high
and it should not have to happen. "

Divisions are opening up and really they are a continuation of the
opposition to the war before it began. As Lou has suggested the strike
against the British makes it clear that there are no soft options in Iraq
for the imperialists.  If they institute democracy they will get a Shi'ite
government.  If they postpone appointing a government then they risk
driving the Sunni and the Shia together. Truly a nightmare scenario for them.

In the meantime a low intensity but effective guerrilla operation seems to
be basing itself on the Sunni population. It will be at least a year before
it is brought under control.  The emphasis on Saddam is of course because
the Americans are desperately hoping that he is the key to the current
resistance and catching him will behead the movement. That might work but I
think it is underestimating the force of Iraqi nationalism or at least the
Sunni version of it.

The Shia are the key but to win them over to active support they have to be
given something and I doubt if they will settle for anything less than an
Islamic state.

In the mean time Bremer's proposals to unleash neo-liberalism do look
somewhat foolish or potentially counter productive.

Syria and Iran may not be helping the Iraqi resistance but it is in their
interests to have the American army bogged down in Iraq and for the
proposed next war to be all that more unpopular.

regards

Gary