Two Alternative Interpretations of the Welsh Assembly Elections

[Ed George <edgeorge@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

These two analyses, interesting in their own right, are of special note
in that they both seem to be saying that Plaid's 'failure' in the recent
elections is a consequence of it not being a party 'Welsh nationalist'
enough. But as I have argued here recently
(<http://archives.econ.utah.edu/archives/marxism/2003w18/msg00206.htm>):

' [...] a section of the Welsh people, at this stage a relatively small
section, have been forced to look politically elsewhere [from Labour to
Plaid]: it is not that the Welsh working class is turning nationalist -
Plaid gains in these areas where it does not specifically run a
'nationalist' campaign - nor is it the case that the Welsh working class
is becoming less social-democratic: it is that it has increasingly to
look for its social democracy elsewhere, since it seems that it is
increasingly unable to find it in Welsh Labour. [...]. Effectively Plaid
finds itself at an historical cross-roads, for the choice now is as
clear as this: it can fight to win back its rural conservative base, now
defecting to the Tories, or it can move forward to be a real party of
(all) Wales. [...]  Plaid [...] has to decide whether it wants to be a
part of this history, or be swept away by it.'

The debate now opening up within the Welsh nationalist movement as a
whole is going to be decisive for what will happen in the next extended
period. And what is of note is that both of the authors below seem to be
siding with the first of the the historical choices I outline above.
Interesting times.

*****

Now what's the point of Plaid?

As the party of independence in Wales it had a role - not any more

Hywel Williams

Wednesday May 14, 2003

The Guardian

So did he really resign? Or was he pushed aside by that very Welsh
strategy - a putsch by committee? Ieuan Wyn Jones's resignation of the
leadership of Plaid Cymru has created even more dissent than his style
of leadership. Parties in deep structural distress always enjoy the
irrelevance of an internal constitutional debate. Which is why there is
now concern that Jones submitted his resignation to just the rump of the
six assembly members elected by the direct route. The other six elected
by PR and the party's Westminster MP's were not consulted. Time surely
for the executive to be summoned. And step forward, with their
suspicions of an anti-Ieuan Wyn Jones plot, two possible leadership
contenders: Elfyn Llwyd, MP for Meirionnydd, and Helen Mary Jones, the
defeated AM for Llanelli. Significant Plaid-ians have almost as many
names as votes these days.

Full: <http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,3604,955315,00.html>


******


Election Fall-Out

John Osmond assesses the impact of the May 2003 National Assembly
election on the fortunes of the political parties.

The headline story of the May 2003 Welsh Assembly elections was of
Labour recovering its heartland Valley seats of Rhondda, Islwyn and
Llanelli from Plaid Cymru and placing itself firmly back in its
traditional saddle of dominance, if not complete control, of Welsh
politics.

However, a glance at the statistics summarised in Tables 1 and 2 reveals
a rather more complex picture. Certainly Labour fought a shrewd campaign
and reaped dividends on election night. However, the figures suggest
that overall Plaid Cymru lost the campaign as much as Labour won it.
This judgement should also be set against the eight per cent decline in
turnout, from 46 per cent in 1999 to 38 per cent. This was a situation
which had previously been thought to help Plaid Cymru, the party that
traditionally had been the most successful in mobilising its core vote.

Full: <http://www.iwa.org.uk/news_analysis/elections2003.html>