Re: Iran's Khamenei nixes rapprochement with US

[Gary MacLennan <g.maclennan@xxxxxxxxxx>]

At 10:37 AM 14/05/2003 -0400, you wrote:
> Doesn't the unending presence of a hostile Iran present an unending
> problem of supply lines to resistance (of any sort, including mere
> anarchic looting)?
>
> Perhaps geopolitically akin to North Vietnam... or, at the least,
> Cambodia-like border-crossings?
>
> Wonder if a "De-Militarized Zone" will be in the cards...
>
> Ken.


I am hoping that Stan Goff will post something on the military potential of
the current situation.  It is unwise I think to forecast what form
opposition  is likely to take.  Armed resistance might well be the last
alternative of the Iraqi people.

However at the moment it is obvious that  the possibility is there for an
urban guerrilla campaign.  As I have said before the principal military
weakness of the American position is that they do not have a sophisticated
intelligence network.  That will take some time to implement.  Nor do they
even have sufficient Arab speak counter insurgency experts I suspect.  They
will develop all this but in the mean time they will  present a lot of soft
targets to the Iraqis.

Should a guerrilla war break out then every effort will have to be made to
close Iraq's borders. that could well include the DMZ option. Something
which may not be achievable without a great deal of expense.  How many
troops will be needed to "keep the peace" in Iraq?

The other glaring weakness is that the US has yet to come up with an
administration which they can reasonably hide behind. This in turn will
make the current consensus within the US itself difficult to sustain.

The Riyadh bombings also illustrate the availability of soft targets beyond
Iraq.    I know terrorism has worked brilliantly for the Bush
administration, but despite the rhetoric "unending terrorism" or resistance
is not what they want.

So the fools have rushed into Iraq.  They will now find it much harder to
get out.

regards

Gary