Forwarded from Anthony (what's next in Iraq)

[Louis Proyect <lnp3@xxxxxxxxx>]

Some thoughts about what will come next in Iraq:

Mosul, the Baath party, causalities - body counts, Syria, guerrilla war, 
class struggle.

Although things are moving so quickly, and the lies that are flying are 
so fast and so large, that speculating on what might come next in Iraq 
is a very ify proposition. So, here are some of my speculations.

1. As everyone has been saying, the length of the war is almost the most 
important factor. As each day goes by, the United States and UK are more 
brutal, and are perceived as more brutal. Hatred for the United States 
is growing wider, and growing deeper. Forming a collaborationist 
government in Iraq - with any shreds of popular support - is becoming 
less and less likely.

2. Four factors can prolong the war:

A. Continued Iraqi control of the North - the area centered around 
Mosul, even after Basra and Baghdad fall.

B. Continued guerrilla warfare in the cities, behind US/UK lines, and 
around US/UK supply lines and bases.

C. Civil resistance to the US/UK - which has already shown itself to be 
strong, as in demonstrations of hatred by civilians to US/UK personnel 
distributing food and water.

D. International support for Iraq. Syria’s public support for Iraq, 
Jordan’s recent statements, and the possibility of covert support for 
Iraq by Russia - may be the tip of the iceberg - or they may not. But 
Arab governments are facing a rising tide of support for Iraq - and 
hatred of the US?UK. This must be reflected within the ranks of the 
military of every one of those countries. What remains of Pan- Arab 
nationalism - that once championed by Baathism together with Naser? 
While any effective international support for Iraq my be a dream, it may 
be closer to reality than we know.

3. The survival of the Baath Party may be the key to all of the above. 
This is clearly understood by the USA which has the murder or arrest of 
Baath Party militatnats as one of its key war aims.

The US is applying military fascism to Iraq - that is it is trying to 
physically liquidate the mass political party upon which the Iraqi 
regime is based.

However far off the tracks Iraqi Ba’athism may have gone in the past, it 
is probably the one organization which could organize both guerrilla 
warfare and civil - and working class - opposition to the invaders - 
now, and for a long time after the US/UK declare victory.

It is also probably the only organization with the international 
connections to fan the flames of protest and mobilization in t he rest 
of the Arab world.

Whether or not it can survive, in clandestinity in occupied territory, 
and openly in territory still controlled by the government of Iraq - is 
a key question upon which much till turn in the next few months.

4. It seems to me that both sides are deliberately lying about casualty 
figures. Both are - it appears to me - wildly underreporting casualties. 
Neither side wants to demoralize their own soldiers still fighting.

This is why Iraq only reports civilian casualties, and no military 
casualties of its own. And it is probably underreporting civilian 
casualties because those numbers also will be demoralizing to soldiers 
and civilians alike.

This is also the most probable reason why the United States is not 
reporting any totals for its dead and wounded. How many US/UK soldiers 
have died so far? How many have been wounded? How many tanks destroyed? 
How many planes and helicopters downed?

The ‘Body count” is probably the single most important factor that could 
mobilize more people in t he US and UK, and move more people from 
supporting the war - or confused neutrality - to opposing the war.

In the posts from Venik, one Russian estimate was that Iraq had no 
chance to ‘win’ the war unless it lasted at least 90 days, and the 
“allies” suffered at least 1000 casualties.

We should keep these numbers in mind.

So what might happen if Iraq survives, and keeps fighting?

Anthony

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