Re: Recognition of governments (was:: A Russian view of the war (April 6)

["Henry C.K. Liu" <hliu@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Revolutionary optimism is measured in decades not weeks or months.  That
the US can achieve the appearance of "victory" is beyond doubt and its
ability manipulate a ritual of legitimaccy should not be underestimated.
 Yet, what this war shows is that "victory" even for a sole superpower
with overwhelming force is not cost effective.  In this war, the US has
lost more than it has gained.  And the losses will continue to mount,
not just in causualties, but in superpower credibility.

During the Cold War, Arab nationalism, particularly pan Arab
nationalism, was subdued by US nurturing of Islamic fundamentalism as a
weapon of choice against communism.  This War on Iraq has re-awaken Arab
nationalism.  Saadam has been drifting away from the Baath Party's
socialist base by the need to survive through a garrison state
mentality. Its error was to accept the military advise of, sequentially,
the British, the French, the Soviet and then the US, in building up its
conventional force, which never had a chance against the US.

The Chines Communists made the same mistake and tried to fight a first
German and later US backed and equiped Kuomintang army which almost
caused the total annilhilation of the People's Liberation Army.  At the
darkest hour of the CPC, Mao gained control of the polibureau and
practiced guerilla warfare supported by the building of soviets as
revolutionary bases in remote parts of the country. Three decades later,
riding on the back of WWII, the CPC gained control of the whole nation.

Either Saadam will seek survival by turning to the root of the Baath
Party of Arab nationalism and socialism, and forget about the Repulican
Guards and build a people's Army, and continue to fight inside Iraq, or
he will be finished and some other leader that no one has heard of as
yet will take up the fight.  But the fight will continue, because if I
can see it, the Iraqis can see it.  As for money and oil, these are not
the ingredients of revolutionary success, hunger, oppression, foreign
plundering are.  And the US will guarantee a continuing sypply of them.
Let the US have the oil and drown it in.

Mid East politics is different since the start of this war. Isreal is
scared out of its wits. The Arabs defeated three European crusades and
they defeated a Chinese army in the 7th century in Asia Minor when China
was a super power.  They also defeated Persia. Tribal socialism is alive
and well and the West is more fragmented than the Arabs.  Russia, France
Germany have no love for the Arabs, but they have less love for the US.
 It does not matter if Saadam is not actually a revolutionary fighter.
 History will make him one.

It has been a good 3 weeks, despite the tragedy of many innocent deaths,
but they will not have died in vain.  War is always the midwife of
revolution.


Henry C.K. Liu