Re: A Russian view of the war (April 6)

["Henry C.K. Liu" <hliu@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

The details of this war are not the deciding factor. The kill ratio will
be high, perhaps 1000 to one.  But the main issue is "victory".  The US
has decided on a strategy of declaring "victory" without full control of
Baghdad.  As long as Saddam's government refuses to surrender and
retains control of some part of Baghdad, no government outside of the
Coalition of the Willing will recognize the US's new regime.  The fact
that Congress has ruled out Russia, France, Germany and Syria from
participating in the "reconstruction" of Iraq through sharing of Iraqi
oil, there will be strong incentive for all left-out governments to
continue to recognize Saadam to protect their pre-war contracts. Keeping
the US in a "supporting" role will also work against US legitimacy.
Wolfowitz alright conceeded that it will take more than 6 months to set
up a puppet regime.  That means there will be no real "victory" for at
least 6 months.  Time is Saddam's weapon of mass destruction for the US.
Iraq will be another West Bank and its struggle will go on for decades.
And the US will look more and more imcopetent by the month, even if it
kills Saadam whose historical legacy has already been firmly established
throughout the Arab world in the last three weeks. As a martyr, Saadam
will be more fearsome than now.

Henry C.K. Liu