One more time....

["David Schanoes" <dmsch@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

I double counted oil reserves for Mexico, Russia and Canada.  Adjusting
for the error still leaves us at 1 trillion barrels.

Other items: various estimates exist of total crude oil reserves, the
numbers I've seen usually are around the 6 trillion barrels mark with
recoverable estimates ranging from the low scenario of  2-2.3 trillion
to high estimates of app. 3.5 trillion.

Various estimates exist also as to the date of peak production, from
the super gloomy 2004, to the seriously gloomy 2016, to the "That's not
so bad," 2020, to the "Don't Worry, Be Happy," 2037.

I didn't and still don't want to argue any of these scenarios, as I
don't think any of them  identify the precipitating element in capital's
oscillations between despair and mania.

If you went to a capitalist or the class of capitalists and said, "Hey, cut
this out.  If you keep it up you're going to put yourself out of business in
20, 30, 40, years,"  the capitalist would look at you and say, besides "Get
out of my office,"  ---"I'll worry about that in 19 or 29 or 39 years.
Right now I'm earning less than 5% on new investment, I'm borrowing money at
6%, I've got too much damn equipment being serviced by too many people, and
I've got to figure out some way to get my prices up before next month ."

Now that's a crude example, by I hope it illustrates what and why I think
capital is always guided by what's directly in front of it, which is to say
the falling rate of profit.


Certainly the environment requires protection.  I think the specific
Marxist analysis of surplus value, which leads to the analysis of
overproduction, which leads to the critical impact of the falling rate
of profit, offers the only way forward to an economy that does not
require pillaging the planet, the technology, or the human labor
necessary for meeting and developing our needs.

In regard to LP's comments:  I tried to show that oil and oil
production followed the classic trajectory of overproduction.  Cost,
price, investment, and rate of return are the critical elements to that
analysis. I believe I did provide factual support for the discussions of
cost, price, investment, rate of return.  I believe I provided
historical background to previous oil crises.  And I tried to show the
pitfalls and dangers in the scarcity of resource argument, most
importantly that class drops out of the analysis and moreover the
argument can easily be used to cover austerity plans with a mantle of
inevitability.  Maybe I didn't do it as well as I could, but it wasn't
for a lack of effort or knowledge.

Some other things. I really have to take exception with the notion that
WWII was fought over oil.  Have we forgotten the tremendous
overproduction leading up to the depression?  Have we forgotten the
depression itself. I'm sure nobody would argue that the depression was
caused by the lack of oil.

The response to the depression by the world of capital was the
wholesale slaughter of the elements of production, material and human. And I
think Lou's comment may have been triggered in the heat of the
moment.

DMS


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