Venezuela: Chavez interview

["Michael Keaney" <michael.keaney@xxxxxx>]

The Venezuelan great survivor rides his luck

Isabel Hilton meets crisis-hit Hugo Chavez, Latin America's most loved - and
hated - leader

Friday October 18, 2002
The Guardian

It is the mark of a man confident in his position that Hugo Chavez,
president of Venezuela, was visiting Oxford yesterday rather than at home in
Caracas, dealing with the latest threat to his presidency.

In April he was briefly deposed by a 48-hour coup. Last week demonstrations
for and against him marched through the capital.

On Monday the increasingly virulent opposition has called a general strike
to try to bring him down.

But Hugo Chavez is chatting with visitors and displaying the combination of
personal charm and anti-elite politics that has made him one of the most
loved - and hated - politicians in Latin America.

"I wanted to be an engineer," he tells a visitor. "But we were poor and the
only way I could study in the capital was to join the army. So I joined the
army."

He saw no reason to postpone his visit, a swing through France, Italy,
Britain and Norway to raise his profile and support in Europe. After four
years in power, the man from the backwoods who served a two-year jail term
for his own failed coup appears relaxed.

"They gave an ultimatum that expired yesterday: to resign or they would call
the strike," he says.

"But they seem increasingly desperate. They have no alter native political
project, they don't understand democracy, and most of the workers say they
won't join the strike."

He now sees the opposition as a small group which has the support of the
media and the limited elite whose interests he is determined to threaten,
but not of many others.

In April the Bush administration welcomed the coup, bizarrely, as a "return
to democracy", until its leaders dissolved congress, declared a state of
emergency, began to lock up elected politicians and said that Venezuela
would not respect Opec quotas.

Loyalists in the army, supported by massive public protests, restored him to
power. It was an embarrassing moment for Washington and relations between
the two countries have been calmer since.

This improvement is unlikely to be deep but although the White House may not
like Mr Chavez the politics of oil, a key factor in the April coup, has
changed.

One of Mr Chavez's achievements as president of Venezuela, America's
third-biggest oil supplier, has been to revive the almost moribund Opec,
stabilise the supply and triple the price of oil.

But if the US gains control of Iraq's oil, Opec's strategy of limiting
supply will be in tatters. If the oil price falls as the US wishes, Mr
Chavez will be hard-pressed to make good his promises to the Venezuelan
poor.

Even that prospect, though, does not appear to worry him. "In the short
term, Venezuela would be the beneficiary of an attack on Iraq," he says.
"Which is not to say that we support it. We support peace and the efforts of
the United Nations to avoid another war."

To his enemies Mr Chavez's friendship with Fidel Castro is evidence that he
is a dangerous populist trying to introduce communism by stealth. But the
worn little book he picks up is blue, not red: the new constitution he
introduced in 1999.

The first page carries a picture of his hero, the 19th-century liberator
Simon Bolivar.

Mr Chavez's movement, his followers say, is about Bolivar's dream of a
united, strong Latin America, not the dictatorship of the proletariat.

There has been no mass nationalisation and the long-delayed land reform has
been mild. The constitution is respected, an adviser points out, to the
point that even April's insurgents are at liberty while the courts prepare
their cases.

Populist in his rhetoric and style, Mr Chavez so far has displayed a respect
for procedure. Leftwingers attack him for promising more than he delivers.

By some measures, poverty has deepened under his rule. Unemployment is up
and the number in extreme poverty has risen by 15% to more than 60% of the
population.

"There are figures and figures," he says. "Let me give you some UNDP [United
Nations Development Programme] figures from three months ago.

"We have reduced the incidence of low birth weight from 9% in 1998 to 6%. Do
you know what that means? There's a drama behind every figure. How many
children will live now who might have died before? Infant mortality is down
from 21% to 17%. Why? Because we have a vaccination programme. Because we
have built 3,000 schools that serve meals to the children so they can
concentrate and learn."

His own popularity, however, has fallen from more than 80% to 35%. He
shrugs. It's another set of figures he distrusts.

"Who saved my life in April?" he asks. "The poor. Why? Because I bewitched
them? No. Because of all the things I have told you."

He continues: "In 1994, when I came out of jail, the elite media began a
campaign of disinformation. They had to demolish Chavez ... I was exiled in
my own country. So I got a truck and I went about, to Indian villages, into
the slums.

"I saw an 'expert' on television talking about presidential candidates ... I
was nowhere. The expert said Chavez was a myth. Nobody remembers him. I knew
it was a lie. I was in the people's hearts and that is where I have stayed."

His new constitution gives him the chance of a second term, which would take
him to 2013: a prospect he relishes.

If, as seems likely, the centre-left Luis Ignacio Lula da Silva captures the
Brazilian presidency next month, Mr Chavez will no longer be the only voice
calling for an alternative to neo-liberal economics in Latin America. If
that happens, he says, it will be a step forward.

His advisers put it more starkly. "It will take the pressure off," one says.
"We might make it."

Hugo Chavez: from prison to power

Born July 28 1954 in Sabaneta, Barinas state, to teacher parents

Educated Venezuelan Military Academy, degree in engineering ,1975

Family Married twice, currently to Maria Isabel Rodriguez. Has three
daughters and one son

Career Founded Movimiento Bolivariano Revolucionario in 1982

1990 Lieutenant-Colonel in the Venezuelan paratroops

1992 Led failed military coup against Carlos Perez, jailed

1998 Founded Movimiento Revolucionario V Republica

1999 Elected president of Venezuela

Highlights of presidency In 1999 renamed Venezuela the "Bolivarian Republic
of Venezuela" in honour of Simon Bolivar; in 2000 became the first head of
state to visit Saddam Hussein since the Gulf war; in April 2002 was restored
to power within 48 hours of a coup




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