Brazil: Silva has big lead, as Serra warns of another Venezuela

["Fred Feldman" <ffeldman@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Brazil's Lula leads polls as Serra attacks
By Carmen Gentile
>From the International Desk
Published 10/14/2002 3:04 PM


SAO PAULO, Brazil, Oct. 14 (UPI) -- Several new polls showed
Brazil's left-wing candidate with a sizable lead over his
government-backed rival leading up to the Oct. 27 elections,
according to results released Monday.

Workers' Party (PT) candidate Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva
garnered 60 percent of the prospective vote, while former
Health Minister Jose Serra received 30 percent, according to
the Vox Populi polling agency, whose results were published
Monday.

Another poll published Sunday reported similar results, with
da Silva -- commonly known as "Lula" -- winning 58 percent,
to Serra's 32 percent.

With less than two weeks to go until the second round of
elections, many analysts speculate that Serra -- the
handpicked successor of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso
and candidate for the ruling Social Democratic Party
(PSDB)-- does not have enough time to rally the support
necessary to catch Lula.

The former health minister, however, continues to express
confidence, saying the poll results were "within our (PSDB)
expectations."

"We are still in the period between the first and second
round," said Serra, referring to the Oct. 6 primary vote.
"The game begins today (Monday)."

Under Brazilian law, since no candidate won a majority of
the first-round vote (more than 50 percent), the runoff
between the top two vote-getters will determine who leads
Brazil for the next four years.

Serra hopes that he can gain some ground on the PT candidate
during highly influential television debates, which surveys
show play a major role in determining how Brazilians vote.

In recent days, he has attempted to goad Lula into accepting
his challenge to speak out on the sagging economy and the PT
candidate's presidential platform, hoping to expose
potential weakness in Lula's ability to govern.

A four-time presidential hopeful, Lula -- a former
metalworker and union leader -- has never held elected
office.

"I am intrigued about why the PT does not want to debate ...
to compare and confront their ideas with ours," said Serra,
O Estado de Sao Paulo reported Monday.

For his part, Lula has opted to not engage Serra in
tit-for-tat banter leading up the elections, telling
supporters over the weekend that "We (the PT) will wage a
pleasant campaign, devoid of personal attacks," Folha de Sao
Paulo newspaper reported.

Last week, the PSDB candidate warned Brazilians that
electing Lula could lead to the kind of civil unrest that is
plaguing neighboring Venezuela and the economic crisis that
besets Argentina.

"The population is entitled to know the candidates'
proposals so as not to be deceived, as has happened in
Argentina and is currently happening in Venezuela," Serra
said.

Serra's remarks came as Brazilian TV showed images of
hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans marching through the
streets of Caracas calling for the resignation of President
Hugo Chavez's "social revolutionary" government, which they
say has divided Venezuela and presided over an economic
collapse.

But analysts said Chavez's close relationship with Cuban
leader Fidel Castro raises the specter of Brazil drifting
closer to that communist state.

Argentina has suffered from economic strife following a
December banking freeze and rioting that left dozens of
people dead. Since then it has seen four presidents come and
go and has defaulted on billions of dollars in loans from
the International Monetary Fund.

Observers say that Lula was not a communist in his union
days. Nor has he given any indication that he will default
on the country's more than $260 billion in foreign debt. He
has publicly stated he would honor Brazil's debt commitments
if elected, though he may seek to restructure their payment.

Despite his appeal to many Brazilians, investors at home and
on Wall Street have made no secret of their concerns about
Lula, and their worry has contributed to Brazil's recent
market woes and falling currency -- the Brazilian real.

The real has lost some 42 percent of its value this year.

Investors favor Serra to lead Brazil for the next four
years, as he would likely continue the U.S.-backed fiscal
reform and privatization policies adopted by Cardoso.

Copyright © 2002 United Press International




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