Alert--Venezuela!!!!!!!

["Fred Feldman" <ffeldman@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

I agree with Nestor that we should remain on the alert about Venezuela.  The
business community and their pet trade union bureaucrats have called for a
general employer lockout on October 21.

I expect that  the Venezuelan working class, the peasantry, and other
supporters of Chavez will be agressively countermobilizing in the
intervening time..

The sections of the police who attacked counterdemonstrations against the
rightist mobilization of support for a coup, and murdered one defender of
democracy should be in a more exposed position.  The regime may be in a
stronger position against these brutal scum including bringing to justice
some of those who have been attacking the democratic rights of supporters of
the regime.

The formation of a "Bolivarian Military Movement" noted by Jose Perez in his
most recent post is a very good sign, and I hope we hear more from it.

In an effort to symbolically countermobilize myself against the Venezuelan
capitalists and landlords, I joined a demonstration called by
ANSWER/International Action Center at the Venezuelan Consulate.  There were
about 40-50 demonstrators in favor of Chavez in front of the consulate. They
were overwhelmingly Latin American of different countries, I think,
including some Venezuelans.

A few dozen feet away were about 30 demonstrators chanting "Chavez dictator"
and "Fuera Chavez". I assume there were Venezuelans there, too -- there must
be a number stationed down in Wall Street and in the corporate HQs.

The personnel at the consulate acted completely neutral, it seemed to me,
with no expressions of support to our demonstration.  We were, however,
permitted to picket right in front of the building, unlike the rightists,
which indicated that we were not being treated as hostile.

One of the most popular chants -- all were in Spanish so I had to translate
for myself and join in as best I could -- linked Chavez and Lula and clearly
celebrated the prospect of their victory.  In general, there was no
atmosphere of intense fear that Chavez would be overthrown.  A certain
confidence was in the air.

I sure don't think voting for Lula in Brazil is anything to be embarrassed
about!  I wish I could have done so myself! There were quite a few  Lula
signs up in the Ironbound -- the predominantly Portuguese-Brazilian
neighborhood in Newark, New Jersey, where I live.

I think that Nestor Miguel Gorojovsky is dead right that the dynamic of the
situation is toward a Venezuela-Brazil-Argentina-Cuba axis of nationalist
resistance to Washington and the U.S. capitalists and their institutions
such as the IMF and World Bank.

It seems to me that the Argentine government, which has formally halted
payments to the World Bank after failing to reach a satisfactory arrangement
with them, is being pulled in this direction willy-nilly, more by weakness
than by a deliberate political course (its inability to decisively defeat
the resistance of the workers in Argentina and the continued deterioration
of  conditions in Argentina for all classes).  I don't see how Argentina
could stay out of such a bloc under present conditions, unless Chavez is
overthrown and Lula defeated in the second round.

I certainly hope Nestor is going to say more about the situation in
Argentina including the Duhalde government.

Still, I think that the U.S. may opt for caution in the next couple weeks.
Some of the recent statements attributed to U.S. officials seem to indicate
genuine awareness of the weaknesses of the opposition in Venezuela.

I think the U.S. rulers are looking to a rapid victory in Iraq or at least
the rapid appearance of victory to swing the tide in their favor and create
a wave of submission to claimed U.S. invincibility.  It seems likely  that
Washington has concluded that there will be no effective resistance to a
U.S. attack and that casualties will be modest.

They are, of course, fully aware that Saddam has no or very few weapons of
mass destruction and little capacity to use them effectively. This is a
regime that has not been proven able to shoot down a single plane in 11
years of air war.  There is no indication that the kind of mass resistance
that it would take to stymie or slow a U.S. invasion is being prepared or
that the regime is capable of doing so.

A Mesopatamian Stalingrad is possible, but it seems to me to be an unlikely
variant in this situation.  The
generals will be weighing their own fate and the rank and file troops will
feel the weight of the experience in the last Gulf war, when the government
and the officers hastily deserted the troops in the trenches.

To me it was saddening to read the Kristoff column in the New York Times, in
which civilians who wanted to resist told him they would throw stones at the
troops.

The invaders will have another advantage which should not be underestimated.
U.S. occupation will presumably mean the end of the sanctions, and thus the
likelihood of an immediate improvement in the desperate conditions of
sections of the Iraqi population, at least those who are not killed or
devastated in the bombings and other slaughter that will accompany the
invasion.

Of course the people of Iraq could surprise the imperialists (and pleasantly
surprise me) -- and in the long run, they are dead certain to surprise the
occupiers -- but I think it would be a mistake to count on that immediately.
I hope things turn out to be a lotrougher for the world's worst terrorists
and tyrants,  but that is my read at the moment.

I expect that when the acceptable resolution is adopted by the Security
Council, and Washington is making it clear according to today's Times that
almost any resolution will be interpreted as a license to kill, the invasion
will come quickly.  I doubt that they will wait till Thanksgiving, or even
necessarily until inspections begin. "If twere done, twere best done
quickly," as Lady Macbeth (as I recall) advises.

The U.S. rulers expect many things to fall into place for them when that
happens, from a big upswing in Wall Street to a cowed Europe to more
obedience from Latin America.

The Europeans have to confront the indications that all existing oil
contracts will be up for grabs once the troops hit Baghdad, and that who
gets what will be determined by how helpful they were in the invasion.  (The
German capitalists can fuhgedaboudit.)

Cuba, of course, will stand up to them.  But I believe the working class and
peasantry of Venezuela will stand up to them too, and that the idea that a
successful invasion of Iraq will depress their fighting spirit and make
possible a successful counterrevolution without decisive opposition, will
prove to be wishful thinking.  The axis connecting the Cuban people with
those of Venezuela has, in my opinion, already been in formation for some
time.  And we will see what happens then.

Fred Feldman

Following is Nestor Miguel Gorojovsky's communication to Marxmail, entitled
"Venezuela: Alert!"
Dear Cdes., though we are starved of news, there is a high
probability that the antinational opposition stages a new coup in
Venezuela right now!

Please keep alert!

The US won't accept a new "evil axis" in South America without
fighting. And this axis is beginning to take shape all of the sudden:

Buenos Aires - Brasília - Caracas, and Havana.

Please be ready to help the Venezuelans with all your might. This is
a very important movement. Take the streets, or do whatever you feel
you can do! We are facing a tremendous menace today.





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