Administration plans U.S. military occupation regime in Iraq; aims at unified power base for U.S. in Middle East

["Fred Feldman" <ffeldman@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

New York Times
A PLAN FOR IRAQ
U.S. Has a Plan to Occupy Iraq, Officials Report
By DAVID E. SANGER and ERIC SCHMITT


WASHINGTON, Oct. 10 - The White House is developing a detailed plan, modeled
on the postwar occupation of Japan, to install an American-led military
government in Iraq if the United States topples Saddam Hussein, senior
administration officials said today. The plan also calls for war-crime
trials of Iraqi leaders and a transition to an elected civilian government
that could take months or years.

In the initial phase, Iraq would be governed by an American military
commander - perhaps Gen. Tommy R. Franks, commander of United States forces
in the Persian Gulf, or one of his subordinates - who would assume the role
that Gen. Douglas MacArthur served in Japan after its surrender in 1945.
One senior official said the administration was "coalescing around" the
concept after discussions of options with President Bush and his top aides.
But this official and others cautioned that there had not yet been any
formal approval of the plan and that it was not clear whether allies had
been consulted on it.

The detailed thinking about an American occupation emerges as the
administration negotiates a compromise at the United Nations that officials
say may fall short of an explicit authorization to use force but still allow
the United States to claim it has all the authority it needs to force Iraq
to disarm.

In contemplating an occupation, the administration is scaling back the
initial role for Iraqi opposition forces in a post-Hussein government. Until
now it had been assumed that Iraqi dissidents both inside and outside the
country would form a government, but it was never clear when they would take
full control. Today marked the first time the administration has discussed
what could be a
lengthy occupation by coalition forces, led by the United States.

Officials say they want to avoid the chaos and in-fighting that have plagued
Afghanistan since the defeat of the Taliban. Mr. Bush's aides say they also
want full control over Iraq while American-led forces carry out their
principal mission: finding and destroying weapons of mass destruction.
The description of the emerging American plan and the possibility of
war-crime trials of Iraqi leaders could be part of an administration effort
to warn Iraq's generals of an unpleasant future if they continue to support
Mr. Hussein.

Asked what would happen if American pressure prompted a coup against Mr.
Hussein, a senior official said, "That would be nice." But the official
suggested that the American military might enter and secure the country
anyway, not only to eliminate weapons of mass destruction but also to ensure
against anarchy.

Under the compromise now under discussion with France, Russia and China,
according to officials familiar with the talks, the United Nations Security
Council would approve a resolution requiring the disarmament of Iraq and
specifying "consequences" that Iraq would suffer for defiance.
It would stop well short of the explicit authorization to enforce the
resolution that Mr. Bush has sought. But the diplomatic strategy, now being
discussed in Washington, Paris and Moscow, would allow Mr. Bush to claim
that the resolution gives the United States all the authority he believes he
needs to force Baghdad to disarm.

Other Security Council members could offer their own, less muscular
interpretations, and they would be free to draft a second resolution,
authorizing the use of force, if Iraq frustrated the inspection process. The
United States would regard that second resolution as unnecessary, senior
officials say. "Everyone would read this resolution their own way," one
senior official
said.

The revelation of the occupation plan marks the first time the
administration has described in detail how it would administer Iraq in the
days and weeks after an invasion, and how it would keep the country unified
while searching for weapons. It would put an American officer in charge of
Iraq for a year or more while the United States and its allies searched for
weapons and maintained Iraq's
oil fields.

For as long as the coalition partners administered Iraq, they would
essentially control the second largest proven reserves of oil in the world,
nearly 11 percent of the total. A senior administration official said the
United Nations oil-for-food program would be expanded to help finance
stabilization and reconstruction. Administration officials said they were
moving away from the model used in Afghanistan: establishing a provisional
government right away that would be run by Iraqis. Some top Pentagon
officials support this approach, but the State Department, the Central
Intelligence Agency and, ultimately, the White House, were cool to it.

"We're just not sure what influence groups on the outside would have on the
inside," an administration official said. "There would also be differences
among Iraqis, and we don't want chaos and anarchy in the early process."
Instead, officials said, the administration is studying the military
occupations of Japan and Germany.

But they stressed a commitment to keeping Iraq unified, as Japan was, and
avoiding the kind partition that Germany underwent when Soviet troops stayed
in the eastern sector, which set the stage for the cold war. The military
government in Germany stayed in power for four years; in Japan it lasted six
and a half years. In a speech on Saturday, Zalmay Khalilzad, the special
assistant to the president for Near East, Southwest Asian and North African
affairs, said, "The coalition will assume - and the preferred option -
responsibility for the territorial defense and security of Iraq after
liberation." "Our intent is not conquest and occupation of Iraq," Mr.
Khalilzad said. "But we do what needs to be done to achieve the disarmament
mission and to get Iraq ready for a democratic transition and then through
democracy over time."

Iraqis, perhaps through a consultative council, would assist an American-led
military and, later, a civilian administration, a senior official said
today. Only after this transition would the American-led government hand
power to Iraqis. He said that the Iraqi armed forces would be "downsized,"
and that senior Baath Party officials who control government ministries
would be removed. "Much of the bureaucracy would carry on under new
management," he added.

Some experts warned during Senate hearings last month that a prolonged
American military occupation of Iraq could inflame tensions in the Mideast
and the Muslim world. "I am viscerally opposed to a prolonged occupation of
a Muslim country at the heart of the Muslim world by Western nations who
proclaim the right to re-educate that country," said the former secetary of
state, Henry A. Kissinger, who as a young man served as a district
administrator in the military government of occupied Germany.

While the White House considers its long-term plans for Iraq, Britain's
prime minister, Tony Blair, arrived in Moscow this evening for a day and a
half of talks with President Vladimir V. Putin. Aides said talks were
focused on resolving the dispute at the United Nations. Mr. Blair and Mr.
Putin are to hold formal discussions on Friday, followed by a news
conference.

Mr. Blair has been a steadfast supporter of the administration's tough line
on a new resolution. But he has also indicated that Britain would consider
France's proposal to have a two-tiered approach, with the Security Council
first adopting a resolution to compel Iraq to cooperate with international
weapons inspectors, and then, if Iraq failed to comply, adopting a second
resolution on military force. Earlier this week, Russia indicated that it,
too, was prepared to consider the French position.

But the administration is now saying that if there is a two-resolution
approach, it will insist that the first resolution provide Mr. Bush all the
authority he needs. "The timing of all this is impossible to anticipate,"
one administration official involved in the talks said. "The president
doesn't want to have to wait around for a second resolution if it is clear
that the Iraqis are not cooperating."
Copyright The New York Times Company






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