PSNI Raids at Stormont and Across Belfast

["D OC" <donaloc@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

I guess most people have heard about the events in Belfast which have been
occurring since last Thursday. Three people have been charged with 'spying'
on British state structures in the six counties. One person remains in
questioning since Friday and they have raided his house again this morning.
The latter individual was working with me to produce our anti-Poverty policy
paper. No doubt the RUC/PSNI will destroy all the work he had on this
subject.

The event in Stormont was highly choreographed by the RUC/PSNI and even
British Secretary for State for the Six Counties. They took two disks from
the offices of our Health Minister - one was a Microsoft Office back-up, the
other randomly selected. The Press were invited and this reinforced the
implications - the leadership of the Force are denying their involvement
although this sounds very dubious. In effect, this was a political act which
sought to link SF involvement in the Executive with alleged IRA intelligence
gathering activities. All this was clearly rehearsed in the context of the
UUP pulling down the Good Friday Agreement institutions - the Brits clearly
decided two things: that elections were to be avoided like the plague and
that if the Assembly was to come down then it was the IRA and Sinn Fein who
were to get the blame rather than Unionists.

So where from here? Today the DUP has said that they will pull out of the
Executive tomorrow - in an attempt to act in unison with the UUP who will
pull out if they don't get their way with pushing Blair to expel Sinn Fein
today. I would be very surprised if Blair was able to do this as this would
require the SDLP to agree and remain in Executive Authority with the
Unionists. The situation where SF were excluded from Executive power in the
North would be pretty much intolerable in Republican minds. The alternatives
are that Blair allows the Unionists to walk out on Friday and permanently
suspends the Assembly by Friday in the next week. This would result in a
permanent delay in Assembly elections and he would then be forced to return
to Direct Rule or move to Joint Authority with the Twenty-six county
Government. The option of having an election remains open although the
mainstream UUP has now effectively deselected every pro-Agreement MLA and
replaced them with anti-Agreement MLAs. In that scenario, the resurrection
of the Assembly is an impossibility. I suspect, given Republican attitudes,
Blair will have to establish some form of Joint-Authority and face down the
Unionists. If this happens, we will lose self-government in the North until
demographics produce a Nationalist majority - in effect, we will be in a
holding position until unity.

At this stage, all options look ominous but people out there that I have
been talking to are outraged by the behaviour of the British state
authorities. One can never be sure what will come out of this; however, we
remain committed to the Peace process as a means of achieving our overall
objective of establishing a 32-county democratic socialist republic.

D OC.


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