Fwd: Carnegie Dream scenario: Military occupation w/o regime change

[Jacob Levich <jlevich@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

> Profile: Carnegie Endowment Proposal to Back Weapons Inspectors in Iraq
> With a U.N. Military Troop of 50,000
> All Things Considered: September 5, 2002
> Iraq: Inspections
>
>
> ROBERT SIEGEL, host:
> From NPR News, this is ALL THINGS CONSIDERED. I'm Robert Siegel.
> JACKI LYDEN, host:
> And I'm Jacki Lyden.
> President Bush is considering whether to seek a UN Security Council
> resolution that would set a deadline for Iraq to allow inspectors to search
> for weapons of mass destruction. But Bush administration officials have
> made clear these inspections must be far more effective than earlier
> efforts, which were thwarted by Iraq. A group of policy analysts has come
> up with a new proposal for a UN military force to back any weapons
> inspections. That idea has sparked some interest in Washington, as NPR's
> Michele Kelemen reports.
> MICHELE KELEMEN reporting:
> If you listen to some of the hawks in Washington, the choice seems stark.
> Either the Bush administration goes it alone, mounting an all-out war to
> topple Saddam Hussein's regime, or it sits by as Iraq continues to develop
> weapons of mass destruction. Retired General Charles Boyd argues there is a
> way to force Saddam Hussein to make the choice, by sending in troops to
> back up weapons inspections.
> General CHARLES BOYD (Retired): He can submit to effective, comprehensive
> inspections backed by military force or he can accept an inevitable
> invasion for the purpose of a regime change.
> KELEMEN: Boyd and other analysts, ex-officials and former inspectors
> outlined their proposal in a report just released by the Carnegie Endowment
> for International Peace. That organization's president, Jessica Mathews,
> says this third way or middle ground should appeal to those who want to
> focus on disarming Saddam Hussein but don't support unilateral US action to
> topple him.
> Ms. JESSICA MATHEWS (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace): This
> says, `Sorry, we're not negotiating. There are no off-limit sites. The
> inspectors will go where they want, when they want. They will have
> operational security, which they did not have before. The Iraqis bugged
> them all the time and knew where they were going. And they will have force
> to back them up.'
> KELEMEN: A force of about 50,000 troops and airpower, according to authors
> of the Carnegie proposal. That would be smaller than an invasion force, but
> large enough to establish no-fly and no-drive zones in areas that are under
> inspection. Mathews see is as a largely American force.
> Ms. MATHEWS: We would have air cavalry forces, which is armored helicopter
> mobile troops that could accompany the inspectors that would be strong
> enough to do whatever they chose to do--that is, whether they chose to
> simply protect the inspectors, to protect themselves, to engage if there
> were direct opposition or to disengage.
> KELEMEN: When White House spokesman Ari Fleischer was asked about the
> possibility of such coercive inspections, he would only say the president
> is considering various options.
> Mr. ARI FLEISCHER (White House Spokesman): The bottom line, though, is that
> Iraq needs to live up to its commitments to disarm, not simply allow
> inspectors in, not to resume a cat-and-mouse game, not to put people in
> there in harm's way where Saddam Hussein would again use the powers of the
> state police to rough up inspectors and make their job impossible to do.
> KELEMEN: And Fleischer has repeatedly insisted that regime change is still
> the US policy. Mathews of the Carnegie Endowment says her proposal would
> only work and Saddam Hussein would only be persuaded to accept inspectors
> if that goal were pushed aside.
> Ms. MATHEWS: The crucial part of this proposal is to recognize that the US
> has to make a give, and that give is to say for as long as inspections are
> working we forgo action on a regime change. We may still believe regime
> change is the best preferable outcome. We have felt that way about Cuba,
> for example, for 40 years without doing anything about it. But we would
> have to make that explicit commitment for this to work.
> KELEMEN: That may be difficult for some in the Bush administration to
> accept. The UN Security Council would also have to approve a military
> operation to back weapons inspectors. Mathews believes that council members
> will be interested in this new proposal, if only to stop the US from acting
> alone. Michele Kelemen, NPR News, Washington.
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>
> http://www.npr.org/programs/atc/transcripts/2002/sep/020905.kelemen.html




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