The rise of China and my own ahistoric forecasts

["D OC" <donaloc@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Mark,

What makes you think China is going to overtake the US? What evidence do you
have on this. The gap in per capita terms was actually increasing until
recently - as far as I remember.

I agree that the US is a bloated economy but it's quite possible for a new
economic balance to be created in which that might be sustained by Foreign
surplus extraction, given a pliant third world and military hegemony.

I think your positing of the peaceful transition from US to Chinese hegemony
is dodgy. The UK-US one can't be used as a comparitor as it was under the
threat of the USSR. The loss of empire has serious pyschological
implications which need to be overwhelmed by something else - I think that
the wars were part of that 'shedding' process. The US experienced a little
with their defeat in Vietnam - you can still see it in Bush and his cronies.

China could well come out of this recession/depression ahead of the US as
they still have something of a socialist buffer on their exposure [in
comparison to the US anyway].

I think that the US would seek to utilise the potential splits within China
to its own advantage.  I just couldn't see them miss that opportunity.
Capitalist-led expansion within China will cause a lot of poor people to
come on the scene - it's not clear that China will hold together under this,
especially with US meddling. Just look at what they are doing in Latin
America - and you think that they will just roll over to China. That's just
not on the cards.

The other factor is the nuke. Let's not forget that.

Besides, I have a feeling that things are going to get interesting from a
revolutionary perspective first. The possibility of a loose alliance
involving nationalist/social democratic/socialist Governments/Parties across
Africa, Latin America and Europe is not off-the-cards for the next decade
and a half (this recession will support that development). I think that a
lot of people are looking that way. I don't think that the imperialists are
half as sure-footed as they make out. They could come unstuck yet and it
won't be the sects which will do it, it will be mass formations to the left
and including some elements of the Social Democratic parties - IMO, we are
seeing their beginnings now in many countries. South Africa was a disaster
for us - it could have led the way.

D OC


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