Re: Interview on Colombia

["bon moun" <sherrynstan@xxxxxxx>]

Les:

"is there any way to decipher all the leaks and stuff coming out of the
Bush administration re/ attacks on Iraq to know what is sabre rattling
and political maneauvering, and what is real honest to god "and don't
forget to order 10000 pounds of butter for the troops stationed at sea
for six months" kind of thing, i.e., they're really in the
__planning__ stages of a massive attack."



Hi Les.

I can't tell you how personally compelling these very questions are for me.
My oldest son, against my best efforts at persuasion, is entering military
service tomorrow.  Rumblings are that an attack will be prepared by
February.  A big attack, 250,000 strong.  Things look very dark from here.
At least I talked him into staying out of combat arms specialties and
working as a diesel mechanic.

Is this psyops?  I can't know.  What kind of preparations does this
require?  The logistics alone--don't even consider the planning and
coordination--are monumental.

I'm convinced that there's mental illness at work with this administration.
Metastasized malignant hubris.  I feel so pessimistic sometimes, these
days, that I fear I am turning into our friend, Mark Jones.

Yesterday, I saw no fewer than half a dozen military transport aircraft
flying through our nearby commercial airport (RDU).  Things are very
unsusual, and I can't interpret what is and what isn't military operational
signature.

In a way, I almost hope they go for it, because it will accelerate their
own demise, but then there's my son.  He has a baby on the way.  I'm 50,
and this will be my first grandchild.  And even in the more than likely
event that he survives, I don't want to see him spend the rest of his life
processing the things I carry around like old luggage.

If what they are saying is true, and if they plan an operation of that
scope, the preparation will be immense and immensely costly.  Their first
problem to solve is where to stage from.  Saudi has said no.  Jordan is
being ambiguous.  If they try to conduct this from further away, the costs
go up exponentially, as do certain risks, particularly operational
security.  Anyone with a telephone can call up and say, "Twenty planes just
flew over my place, and they're headed your way."

I hear a lot of blather about how the Iraqis might go for broke this time
and put up a fight, but these are not Yugoslavs, with their military roots
in the egalitarian and committed partisans.  They are conscripts, led by an
officer corps that is corrupt and inept, and my own opinion is that they
will come apart like a two dollar shirt.  Moreover, the US will inflict
horrific bombing casualties prior to committing ground troops.  It will be
a media-concealed racist war of annihilation.  The question is not can the
US get in, but as in Afghanistan and Yugoslavia, how do they get out?  And
what will surrounding nations do?  If there were four Arabs I would not
want to be today, they would be Hosni Mubarak, King Abdullah, Prince
Abdullah, and Yasser Arafat.  Being a "moderate" Arab will soon be a hell
of a liability in the face of these ever more angry masses.

Stay well, comrade.

Stan


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