Some statistics for Arguments over relative poverty

["D OC" <donaloc@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Gary was looking for some statistics on unemployment/deprivation for
analysis. The Northern six counties are probably the most analysed in the
world for such things. Indeed, the six counties must be the most warped free
market economy in Western Europe because of the huge military-industrial
complex, state interventions and these statistics determine a whole range of
public expenditure decisions (and even determine where private sector
industries will get greatest profit-subvention!!). And they tell you that
the planned economy is not possible??

Anyway, the two key statistics which are up-to-date are unemployment (as per
the claimant count) and deprivation indicators (as per Noble). These are
available in

Claimant Count (by whatever District Council Area)
http://www.economicstatistics-ni.gov.uk

and

Deprivation (as per Noble) http://www.nisra.gov.uk/whatsnew/dep/index.html

A few key issues, the Claimant count represents only those actively seeking
work. The Unemployment statistic is based on a total workforce which
excludes females who are looking after children, discouraged workers and
those permanently sick. As such, unemployment statistics here are really
only good for relative assessments - which is what I guess you want them
for. Another thing, the claimant count and unemployment statistics give no
indication of income poverty among the employed (unlike figures for the
twenty-six counties).

For foreign readers, these unemployment figures may seem very small;
however, they remain greater than the comparative GB figures and reflect the
harsh conditions those who are unemployed have to face. As such, the
unemployment statistics mask a very low wage economy (probably 1/2 to 1/3
that of Britain and about 1/2 that of the twenty-six counties). The other
thing is that the six counties has experienced an expansion - particularly
in the low income sectors (e.g. hospitality and tourism). About 35% of the
overall population are employed in the swollen public sector - mostly due to
the large military-industrial complex.

Overall, the East Belfast Constituency had an Unemployment Rate of 3.0% last
month - comparing to a six county average of 4.5%. This would place it at
the very low end of unemployment hotspots - c.f. West Belfast at 12.9% -
with over 21% of males unemployed. However, it is true that the area has
lost much of its heavy industries with the impacts of globalisation -
Harland and Wolff, the one-time bastion of Loyalist working-class support is
in serious financial difficulties and is only kept alive by Stormont
pay-cheques.

As far as deprivation goes, East Belfast has a few hotspots near the city
(indeed, the worst according to Noble is the Short Strand, a Nationalist
enclave), but it really doesn't come out too badly. I have posted an
analysis of East Belfast's deprivation previously and I think it was proven
pretty conclusively that that the worst 'deprived' 20 wards (out of 566)
were overwhelmingly Nationalist and urban - although I had noted a slight
methodological bias away from rural areas generally. The main problems in
East Belfast are anti-social behaviour, drugs and a serious collapse of
social cohesion (with the classes pulling apart).

D.



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