The Spectre of Civil War

["D OC" <donaloc@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

I think the old women calling for more policing probably was typical TV
bias - they pick the one person who would say that and film them. The SDLP
initially seemed to capture popular feeling on the PSNI issue but I think
events in North Belfast have completely undermined whatever chance they had
of recovering on it. The Stevens Report and the litany of cloak and dagger
actions which have occured over the last six months have further undermined
their credibility on this issue.

>From what I hear the SDLP are already preparing a masterplan to save
themselves from complete oblivion in next year's Assembly elections - they
will say that a vote for SF will bring down the GFA (by putting Adams as
First Minister or Deputy First Minister) with Paisley in the other position
and will therefore lead to civil war - it's not beyond Trimble to be doing
the same thing - let's not forget Trimble is in daily contact with the
Loyalists right now and they seem to share a strategic vision.

Such a policy is an indicator of SDLP fears - their support base is eroding
fast - it's hard to get someone around here who will admit to being a
supporter. I know some of the original SDLP members and they have now
rediscovered their 'green roots'. I'm sure some will say that this says more
about SF than the SDLP. I would have to counter that 10-15 years ago the
SDLP would not run on the issue of Collusion, today I saw the Deputy leader
on the TV trying to recapture some space on the issue.

As far as British nationalistic class politics and the PUP goes. I just
don't know what to make of them. They seem to be left of centre on the
social and economic issues but tied to their British roots - I think that's
a good start - they also seem to be interested in talking to us which is a
good start. We both have a long way to go on that and they have some serious
difficulties to overcome but I guess it's only people like Ervine and
Hutchinson who were at the coalface of Loyalism who could do what's
required.

As far as Unionists still being favoured. I'm sure that you live in a places
which is more deprived than many, perhaps most Nationalist areas. However, I
think even the most up-to-date unemployment stats will demonstrate a 2-1
ratio between the communities. In my area, you can tell the community
ownership of land by looking at its quality - so there are remnants. Having
said that, the GFA and the 1997 NI Act Section 75 (Equality Act) is
impacting on the ground. The thing is that Unionist communities although
more economically favoured suffer from crime and drugs to a far greater
level.

As Danielle says, there have been all sorts of contacts between the groups
made over time. I know that there were even joint protests held by SF and
the PUP - something which many would not believe could happen - I don't know
if this coordination is so strong today but I'm sure it continues at some
level. I think that the GFA did open some political space for that sort of
thing. Inside the Assembly, it is usually SF, the PUP and the Women's
Coalition who side on the progressive issues with the SDLP caught like a
rabbit before the headlamps. Some of them are total conservatives on all
issues, some have social-democratic tendencies, the 11-plus is an example.

I feel Danielle's criticisms of the GFA are incomplete because they see it
as something fixed - the GFA didn't crystalise anything, it was a reflection
of the status at that time - there were more than enough arenas to work at
within it. Even if we got a Socialist Republic tomorrow the sectarian
hostilities would need reflection in it to protect the minority population
from reactionary onslaught by the Catholic lobby. In effect, the GFA was
negotiated to ensure that no-one got much power outside the Ministers and
even they had limits placed on them by the Executive as a collective. The
British really retained anything meaningful anyway. Perhaps there might have
been better ways to do things, but I haven't heard them.

The GFA was an agreed set of rules by which the struggle would be fought
out. The fact that the structures of the GFA could collapse if the election
goes against the UUP is part of that process - nothing was written into
stone - that's the dialectic of struggle. SF never wanted the Assembly to
start off with, but we realised that with the SDLP happy with it we would
have to go along so long as we were second players to them. Another point to
remember is that the GFA has been passed by simulaneous votes throughout
Ireland and has some legal basis in both legal state systems - a simple
victory by the DUP over the UUP will not be sufficient to undermine all the
agreement's terms - parts of it will remain. So I think whole new vistas
will open up. The British Government will have to face down the Unionists
and tell them that a change has to occur - the status quo is not an option.
I think that will benefit those working-class Protestants so betrayed by
their own representatives currently.

Domhnall



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