The Spectre of Civil War

["D OC" <donaloc@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

>I wonder what is going to change things here. We are, I think, in for a
long
hot summer. Sectarian violence, from whtever side it emanates will do
nothing but damage to any progressive tendencies in this country, yet it
seems unavoidable. When even working-class catholics have to rely on scum
such as the PSNI for protection soemthing is very very wrong. Any thoughts.
If this strikes some as naive or uninformed, maybe so, but this country, at
present, seems to have all the preconditions of near-civil-war.

I'm not going to disagree with what Zac has written - I think most is
justifiable - and it's always interesting to hear from a progressive living
in somewhere like East Belfast. However, I should like to note that the
current violent edge on the naked sectarianism being experienced in parts of
Belfast is not widespread through the rest of the six counties. The
situation here in Fermanagh is anything but on the edge of civil war - I
remember in the early 1980s when if a civil war started it would have
started here - so the situation is patchy to say the least. I think that the
confrontations being fought on the streets of East, North and South Belfast
seem less than organic - I would be fairly sure that the UFF are in the
middle of it all fomenting something. I would not deny the likelihood of
'Catholic' reactionaries also being involved as effectively these are
clashes between lumpen elements within ordinary, deprived working class
communities with the more 'serious' military formations standing behind with
their own agendas and strategic objectives (where these exist).

This summer is indeed going to be another long and dangerous one - July is
around the corner and the situation with regard to marches hasn't been
anywhere near resolved. The situation will be more tense than usual because
of the crisis of mainstream Unionism - the Trimble faction is under serious
pressure and this will play itself out on the streets - as per usual, one
side will try to be more hard-line than the other. The structures of
traditional Unionist hegemony are under severe pressure - there is the
possibility that the Orange Order might split into 3 different groups - it's
holding together despite deep personal resentments. The entry of the BNP
into Belfast and the rise of drug-peddling gangsters as the icons of
Loyalism is also symptomatic of this state of affairs.

I would be concerned that any Catholic felt that the PSNI/RUC could offer
anything in terms of protection - it wasn't but last Sunday when a RIR
soldier (local regiment of British Army) with PSNI back-up offered me the
wrong end of a barrel to look down. Wasn't the first time, nor the last I
suspect. The Stevens Report indicated that 80 people plus were killed as a
result of collusion between British Security forces and the Loyalist
paramilitaries - these people will remain within these Security forces, now
renamed the RIR and PSNI respectively. As for British Military
Intelligence - no-one knows, but I'm sure they have risen up the ranks since
the late-80s/early-90s.

I think all progressives in the North look for the development of a
meaningful and progressive form of Protestant representation. I had hoped,
despite my judgement, that the PUP would contain that germ - maybe they will
yet.

It's hard to describe to foreign readers how little I know of the average
Unionist - I neither speak nor mix with them, not out of bigotry but because
to do so would be to enter into their space and is unnecessary. My village
is almost 100% Nationalist/Republican (with a few Protestant Nationalists)
the neighbouring hamlet, 6 miles away, is nearly 100% Unionist/Loyalist
(with a few Catholic Unionists). Enniskillen is mixed (in segments) but the
two communities (about 80-20 Nationalist-Unionist) rarely speak to one
another on the streets. Being a known SF member locally, no self-respecting
Unionist would speak to me without cause anyway. I understand things from
the Protestants through indirect contacts, through things the one Protestant
at my workplace says, how their representatives speak in the Council
chamber, where the drug dealing is occuring and with whom.

Despite the drain on local Protestant communities through the changing
circumstances and times, their areas in my end of the county regularly clock
up voting tallies of over 95% - so any drop in Unionist
support/politicisation among these largely middle-large land-owners would be
immediately identifiable. The situation in East Belfast (a Unionist
working-class Stronghold) where Zac lives is probably quite different with
lower levels of politicisation but still the same levels of communal
separation and mistrust.

Domhnall.



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