Venezuela Conflict: Who Is Gaining Ground?

["Fred Feldman" <ffeldman@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

In an article on economic gains and setbacks in Cuba, Brian Williams writes
in the Junew 24 Militant:

"...since the April ll failed coup against Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez,
Cuba has not been receiving any oil from Venezuela,; which had been
supplying Havana with more than 50,000 barrels a day.  This represents about
a third pf the country's needs and it is supplied at reduced prices in
exchange for the service of Cuban doctors, teachers, and other technicians
who volunteered to participate in internationalist missions.  Much of the
oil was financed over 15 years at 2 percent interest.

"The call to halt oil deliveries to Cuba was promoted by the military coup
plotters and wealthy businessman Pedro Carmona, who very briefly seized
control of Venezuela's government.  During their stint in power, they did
halt the oil deliveries to Cuba, which almost two months later have not
resumed.

"The suspension of the petroleum shipments has 'caused grave damage to our
country,' stated a recent Granma articlej, forcing the Cuban government to
spend 'dozens of millions of dollars more than planned' on the spot market
to make up for it and dipping into the country's own petroleum reserves."

Important as this is for Cuba, I think it is more important as an indicator
of an aspect of  hwo the class struggle, which is also a national struggle,
in Venezuela has taken shape since the coup.

To what extent has Chavez actually  regained control of the government since
his return to office?  We know that he made major concessions to the
oligarchy concerning keeping the oligarchy's bureaucrats in control of the
oil industry after his return.

Since I don't think that Chavez has turned against Cuba since returning to
Caracas, I have to conclude that the nationalized oil industry is carrying
out the orders of the coup-makers and not the official policy of the Chavez
government.

What has become of the land reform program that was adopted?  Has it been
carried out anywhere and to what extent?

There arre a lot of scare stories in the media about the Bolivarian circles
and how they are spreading and  becoming more militant and prepared for
another clash.  I sure as hell hope these alarmist reports  are  true, or at
least partly true.

But what is happening to the circles?  Are they expanding?  Are they being
prepared for what is coming down the line?  We know that the proimperialist
forces in the labor movement are well organized?  What is being done to
prepare the revolutionary minded workers?

We read about the fanatical hatred of  Chavez being whipped up among the
middle classes?  What about the hatred of the oligarchy among the masses?
Are there leaders who are organizing and preparing them?

Are both sides of the polarization in the army being organzied and prepared
or just the proimperialist one?

I don't at all assume a negative answer to all these questions, although I
doubt that the answers to all of them would be positive.

The events of the weekend of April 11 showed what is possible, however.  I
believe the Venezuelan masses are determined to figbt iin a way they haven't
been since the period after the overthrow of the military dictatorship and
the victory of the Cuban revolution in the late '50s and early 60s.

The conflict in Venezuela (which should not be separated too sharply from
what is taking place in Colombia despite the big differences) increases the
possibility that we are headed for a regional civil war and a regional
imperialist military intervention.  Keeping Venezuela in the empire is an
even higher priority for U.S. imperialism than imposing an imperialist
protectorate in Iraq.
Fred


~~~~~~~
PLEASE clip all extraneous text before replying to a message.