Forwarded from Anthony (reply to Tony A.)

[Louis Proyect <lnp3@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Hi Lou.

Reply to Tony re Colombia.

Tony thinks there is already "total war" in Colombia. He wrote,

"Anthony, I'm afraid I'm going to have vote with The New York Times on this
one.     Colombia is ALREADY in the middle of a 'total war'."

Tony, I am looking out my window and there are no F-14s, F-15s, F-16s or
Stealth bombers in sight.

There is a big difference between "low intensity" warfare, and "total war."

I invite you to come visit me in Bogotá where you will find things very
similar to life in Houston, Atlanta, Los Angeles. Traffic jams, shopping
malls, etc.

You will not need a flack jacket or helmet.

You will not see any fighting.

This is very different than say, what just happened in Kosovo, Belgrade,
East Timor... or Vietnam.

My description of Bogotá holds true for the other cities of this country.

The only place in this country where there is anything approaching what
might be called total war is the department of Putumayo - a small
department, sparesely populated, on the border with Ecuador.

As for the leadership of the FARC being fooled by the despeje...

Well, people here think the leadership of the FARC took Pastrana for a fool
by trading peace talks for the despeje. The FARC has used it to build up
their military forces, their financial infrastructure, etc.

I am not so sure that they were not fooled however, because the despeje has
led the FARC to concentrate their forces in a well defined geographical
area - which has a very small civilian population.

Whereas without that concentration the FARC had all of the traditional
advantages of a guerrilla army against a conventional army, the despeje has
made the fARC vulnerable - for the first time in its history - to a
conventional assault - including a conventional assault using air power.

However, that could change, and change very soon.

I have been wrong in my predictions about this country many times before,
and I may have been wrong saying it looks like Total war had been put off
for the medium term.

It turns out that when Pastrana announced a continuation of the despeje a
few days ago ... he left out a very important detail. He didn't say for how
long.

The next day he did. Until Sunday. He has one condition for its
continuance. He wants to meet personally with Tirofijo.

According to the newspapers, Tirofijo is consulting witht he FARC
leadeship, and might be willing to meet Pastrana in 10 days or so.

Does the FARC want to continue the despeje?

I don't know. But as very intelligent military strategists and tacticians,
they are certainly aware of the dangers of conventioanl assault that they
have opened themselves to by accepting the despeje - and may have good
reasons to want to end it.

As I have described in earlier posts, the government here has been
preparing an offensive for the last two years: training new units with US
officers and more modern arms, building a network of fortified positions
urrounding the despeje and other FARC strongholds, carrying out
pschological warfare to induce FARC soldiers to defect, building air bases
which are now being used to monitor all FARc electronic communications, and
which are now being used effectively in Putumayo for airborne combat
troops, but which could be used as bases for fighter bombers ... etc.

In other words Tony, there is preparation for Total war, but there is no
total war yet.

Believe me, the distinction is very important.

San Vicente de Caguan, the capital of the despeje is a nice little cow
town. A few bombing runs and it would be a ruin.

The FARC leadership understands this. Activists in the United States
should, too.

Having said this, and leaving many things that should be said still unsaid,
I too think the planned conference announced by Ron Jacobs on this list is
very much needed.

Anthony


Louis Proyect
Marxism mailing list: http://www.marxmail.org